Thursday, May 31, 2012

Internet Trends 2012 by KPCB /// Mobile accounts





Internet Trends 2012 by KPCB /// Mobile accounts


Mobile adoption still in early stages (Slide 3) Please remember: The mobile concept had been evolving since last 5 years. 5 years ago "mobile" was smartphones, Treos and Blackberrys. Now "mobile" is tablets.

iPad Growth (3x iPhone) Leaves "Siblings" in Dust (Slide 9) but tablets are used mostly with WiFi connections!

iPads are exploding. Just under a third, or 29% of US adults own a tablet or e-reader, up from 2% three years ago. (Slide 12)

Mobile Internet traffic exploding. Mobile accounts for 10% of Internet traffic in 2011, up from 1% in 2008. (Slide 14)

Bad News – Rapidly Growing Mobile Internet Usage Surpassed More Highly Monetized Desktop Internet Usage in May, 2012, in India. (Slide 18)

Bad News - eCPMs 5x Lower on Mobile than Desktop (Slide 19)

Bad News - ARPU (Average Revenue per User) 1.7 to 5x Lower on Mobile than Desktop
Zynga has an ARPU (average revenue per user) of USD 25.00 on the desktop, 5 times more than its mobile ARPU of USD 5.00. (Slide 20)

Bad News - Google is seeing its clicks rise because of mobile. But it's CPC (cost per click) is dropping because a click on a mobile device is worth less than the desktop. (Slide 21)

Bad News - Facebook is also seeing revenue constrained as it adds more mobile users. Facebook had 488 million active mobile users in Q1 2012, up 69% from the year-ago period. That's translated into annualized ARPU of USD 4.00, up 1% from a year ago, but down from USD 4.59 in Q4 2011. Total advertising revenue growth is slowing down.  (Slide 22)

Bad News - Global GDP Growth Expected to Decelerate in 2012 with Europe Slipping Into Recession. (Slide 93)
Bad News -  SA, Inc. – Biggest Peace Time Gap Between Revenue & Expenses in USA History. (Slide 96)


Bad News - BUBBLE - OR NOT? RECENT INTERNET IPOS – WHILE COMPELLING IN MARKET VALUE, NOT COMPELLING IN PERFORMANCE (Facebook, Pandora, Yelp, Zynga, Groupon, etc)
(Slide 104)

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Have you read also The Internet's impact on aspiring countries report from McKinsey ?

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What comes after Social Networking?
My bet: The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test. 

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

OkCupid research: Do Online Dating Platforms Help Those Who Need Them Most?

The USD2 billion online dating industry promises the possibility of a priceless product: romantic love. Associate Professor Mikolaj Piskorski investigates whether these sites are helping the lonely—or just making life easier for young singles who are popular already.
Key concepts include:
• Researchers studied a random sample of 500,000 OKCupid members, focusing on two important stages of forming a relationship: spotting a potential mate, and initiating contact.
• Older, shorter, and relatively overweight men tended to view more profiles than their younger, taller, slimmer counterparts. However, those who were most likely to view lots of profiles were least likely to initiate contact with an e-mail message.
• Some of the features on OKCupid helped users to overcome the normative restrictions of the offline world, while others only served to help those who really needed the least help.

Please remember: People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (FORGET Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences)

Dr. Piskorski had previously written the (useless) paper "eHarmony" last July 2008.


It seems C-level dating executives do not pay attention to new and fresh research.
Here is a list of the most interesting scientific studies relevant to the Online dating industry for you to consider reading.


Latest Research in Theories of Romantic Relationships Development shows: compatibility is all about a high level on personality* similarity* between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
*personality measured with a normative test.
*similarity: there are different ways to calculate similarity, it depends on how mathematically is defined.

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 online dating sites but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar test) to assess personality of its members.
Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are .............. NOISE

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Facebook, in the same road as Enron.

Do you remember the Enron case?

Well, I think Facebook is in the same road. It will be a stupid shareholders' series case of study, instead of stupid investors' series case of study.


There is a large dotcom bubble fueled by venture investment funds, investors who are dragging other investors to continue investing until they can sell shares of the company and recover leveraged money, but the last holder of shares is going to lose.
Many technology companies, without having a concrete business model (supposedly will generate revenue from advertising and premium subscription accounts) receive millions of dollars in funding to offer something free, acquiring fastly a large mass of captive users as if they had made them addicts, and then, the exit strategy (for investors) is to get someone to buy the company at a staggering figure, as did Blogger, Fotolog, MySpace, YouTube, Skype, Bebo and others. They are like continually inflating balloons and they need to find a buyer before they explode. If they can not find a private buyer for the entire company, the investors had the strategy of going public, to start trading its shares on the New York Stock Exchange, they turn those pieces of paper (shares) in real money, they get thousands of buyers purchasing lower small parts (shares).

The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone, Especially Ourselves

I think any C-level online dating executive and many daters should read that book.
The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%).
 
Dr. Dan Ariely cites Enron in the introduction, but I think Facebook will be like Enron soon.

 

Sunday, May 27, 2012

FIRO, CPI and 16PF5


Recently I was asked my opinion about FIRO and CPI

FIRO is an ipsative test, so it is obsolete for online dating purposes.
FIRO = Fundamental Interpersonal Relations Orientation Behavior test.
It was used during 2008 in NoMoreDates and ButterfliesAgain.

CPI = California Psychological Inventory
CPI260, online true/false survey of 260 questions
CPI434 online true/false survey of 434 questions

The 16PF5 (Fifth Edition) contains 185 multiple-choice items, also measures Big5 traits using the same 185 questions

Both FIRO and CPI were used in NoMoreDates circa 2008

FIRO and CPI sample reports


CPI is not as well known as the 16PF5 (Fifth Edition) or similar test like 15FQ+ (its copycat)
CPI is not as well researched as the 16PF5 (Fifth Edition) or similar test like 15FQ+ (its copycat)
CPI is not as powerful as the 16PF5 (Fifth Edition) or similar test like 15FQ+ (its copycat)
CPI is not available in several languages as the 16PF5
CPI is longer than the 16PF5 (more time consuming)
The development of a proprietary copycat of the 16PF5 normative test could cost in the range of USD100,000 per norm and language.

IPSATIVE personality tests are OBSOLETE (self-descriptive questionnaires) and should be discarded: MBTI (PerfectMatch), DISC (ThomasKnowsPeople), Enneagram (Dopasowani) or other proprietary ipsative tests like the ones used at Chemistry, ButterfliesAgain, Doskonalapara, PembePanjur, LittleHint, oneGoodLove and others.


NORMATIVE personality tests like Big5 versions used at PlentyOfFish, eHarmony, Meetic Affinity, Parship, Be2, True are good for orientative purposes but not good enough for predictive purposes.
eHarmony, True, PerfectMatch, MeeticAffinity, Parship, Be2, PlentyOfFish and others are in the range of 3 to 4 persons compatible per 1,000 persons screened. Any member of those sites receives on average 3 to 4 prospective mates as compatible for dating purposes per 1,000 (one thousand) members screened in the database. So in a 10,000,000 persons database, any member will see 30,000 to 40,000 members as highly compatible; 30,000 persons is the population of an average small city. Any person can achieve 3 to 4 persons as highly compatible per 1,000 persons screened, searching by his/her own or by mutual filtering methods!

eHarmony, True, PerfectMatch, MeeticAffinity, Parship, Be2, PlentyOfFish, Chemistry and others have a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms.
The Online Dating Industry does not need a 10% improvement, a 50% improvement or a 100% improvement. It does need "a 100 times better improvement"

LIFEPROJECT METHOD is in the range of 3 persons compatible per 100,000 persons screened, 100 times better than any other.

"Because the Big Five groups the more specific primary-level factors, feedback organized around the five Global Factor scales is more easily understood. For detailed feedback or predictive purposes, one should assess the more specific primary factors. Research has shown that more specific factors like the primary scales of the 16PF Questionnaire predict actual behavior better than the Big 5 Global Factors. For example, one extravert (a bold, fearless, high-energy type) may differ considerably from another (a sweet, warm, sensitive type), depending on the extraversion-related primary scale score patterns, so deeper analysis is typically warranted." Extracted from the 16PF5 Manual

Normative tests can not simply be translated, because you need the norm for that test, and that norm is actualized each and every time Census Figures are released

The 16PF5 test is available in
- English for the United States and the Norm for the United States (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of the United States).
- English for the United Kingdom and the Norm for the United Kingdom (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of the United Kingdom).
- English for Australia and the Norm for Australia (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of Australia).
- French for France and the Norm for France.
- German for Germany and the Norm for Germany.
- Spanish for Spain and the Norm for Spain.
- Italian for Italy and the Norm for Italy.
and many more languages including English for India, English for South Africa, Afrikaans, Chinese (traditional), Czech, Danish, Dutch, Greek, Japanese, Norwegian, Portuguese (Brazilian), Portuguese (European), Slovak, Spanish for America, Swedish, Tagalog (Philippines) and Turkish "With over 60 years of research and application behind it, the 16PF5 has become internationally well known and respected, with over 20 different translated versions."

The output of the 16PF5 test are 16 variables STens (Standard Tens) taking integer values from 1 to 10. STens divide the score scale into ten units.
STens have the advantage that they enable results to be thought of in terms of bands of scores, rather than absolute raw scores. These bands are narrow enough to distinguish statistically significant differences between candidates, but wide enough not to over emphasize minor differences between candidates.

Similarity is a word that has different meanings for different persons or companies, it exactly depends on how mathematically is defined. I calculate similarity in personality patterns with (a proprietary) pattern recognition by correlation method. It takes into account the score and the trend to score of any pattern.

LIFEPROJECT METHOD is like the "Teller Ulam design" for the Online Dating Industry.
In this case 100 times more powerful than actual matching algorithms.

Breaking "the online dating sound barrier" is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5. The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9 (estimated OCT 2011)
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 6.7.6.8.9.6.7.7.8.7.2.5.8.7.3.4 is 92.55033557%  +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 7.7.6.8.8.7.6.5.8.7.4.5.7.7.3.4
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

All other proposals are .............. NOISE

See How LIFEPROJECT METHOD calculates similarity between quantized patterns using an adapted quantum mechanics math equation. All other methods are RUBBISH, because the ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9 (estimated OCT 2011)

(7.0 * 10E9) / 10E16 == 7.0 * 10E(-7) or 0.7 * 10E(-6) or 0.7 micro part!

All World Population is less than 0.7 micro part of the 16PF5's ensemble.

e.g.the 16PF5 Brazilian version, in Portuguese for Brazil and the Norm for Brazil (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of Brazil).

Brazil population is in the range of 190 million persons, 190 * 10E6 == 1.9 * 10E8.
demographic characteristics of Brazil 47.73% White, 43.13% Brown (Multiracial), 7.61% Black, 1.09% Asian, 0.43% Amerindian
(1.9 * 10E8)/ 10E16 == 1.9 * 10E(-8) or 0.019 * 10E(-6) or 0.019 micro part!

Brazil population is 0.019 micro part of the 16PF5's ensemble. You can not use simple regression equations to calculate similarity between quantized patterns because:
* women will "see" men as all the same.
* men will "see" women as all the same.

Without offering the 16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors, the complete inventory as established by Dr. Raymond Cattell during 1949) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

Friday, May 25, 2012

COMMPER 2012

The Second International Workshop on Mining Communities and People Recommenders

COMMPER 2012 is a workshop in conjunction with The European Conference on Machine Learning and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (ECML PKDD), which will take place in Bristol, UK from September 24th to 28th, 2012.

"People recommenders, the second main topic of this workshop, deal with the problem of finding meaningful relationships among people or organizations. In online social networks, relationships can be friends on Facebook, professional contacts on LinkedIn, dates on an online dating site, jobs or workers on employment websites, or people to follow on Twitter. The nature of these domains makes people-to-people recommender systems to be significantly different from traditional item-to-people recommenders. One basic difference in the people recommender domain is the benefit or requirement of reciprocal relationships. Another difference between these domains is that people recommenders are likely to have rich user profiles available. The goal of this workshop is to build a community around people recommenders and instigate discussion about this emerging area of research for recommender systems. With this workshop, we want to reach out to research done in both academia and industry. "



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Recommender systems (a.k.a recommendation engines) can be based on:

- past actions (as the formerly Beacon at Facebook)

- a pattern of personal preferences (by collaborative filtering, as the actual one at Facebook) The main disadvantage with recommendation engines based on
collaborative filtering is when users instead of providing their personal preference try to guess the global preference and they introduce bias in the recommendation algorithm.

- personality traits of users.

Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones
(past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users.
Have you seen they need to calculate personality similarity between users?
Have you seen there are different formulas to calculate similarity?
In case you did not notice, recommender systems are morphing to .......... compatibility matching engines!!!
They mostly use the Big5 to assess personality and the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate similarity.


WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
 but no one is using the 16PF5 to assess personality of its members!
 but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
 but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
 but no one is scientifically proven!


I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.

Breaking "the online dating sound barrier" is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 6.7.6.8.9.6.7.7.8.7.2.5.8.7.3.4 is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 7.7.6.8.8.7.6.5.8.7.4.5.7.7.3.4
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

All other proposals are .............. NOISE

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Some fresh screenshots from eHarmony USA site
















eHarmony, a 12+ years old obsolete site, uses a Compatibility Matching Algorithm based on personality similarity with the Big5 normative personality test and Dyadic Adjustment Scale (invented by Dr. Graham B. Spanier in 1976) as its core. The Guided Communication Process (a mutual filtering step) is an appendix of its main matching algorithm.
eHarmony is not “scientifically proven” because eHarmony Labs could not prove eHarmony’s matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships -and very low divorce rates- than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one’s own, or other technique as the control group in a peer reviewed Scientific Paper.

eHarmony Inc.'s new CEO had never talked in public or with the press during last 9 months, since he began his tenure.

eHarmony Japan was live, ready, fully developed since September 2011 but never launched, silently buried.
eHarmony Inc. IPO is inviable now.

Jazzed had failed. BetterDateDE failed.

eHarmony USA, Canada, UK, Australia and Brazil in decadence.
eHarmony claims 12 million users, now in 2012.

The Online Dating Industry is performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created.
There is no/weak Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms like ISO 9001:2008 for customer service, except for the Indian company Shaadi.
The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%). The Online Dating Industry needs to kill the Matchmaking Industry, like computers killed typewriters.
The Online Dating Industry needs Innovations, but Innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites. Or launching new ones with the same stupidities as the old ones.


Recently Right Brain Advertising  had published some fresh documents about "eHarmony's plans", but if they do what it is planned, eHarmony Inc. will die peacefully, going directly to bankruptcy.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Why Facebook is killing Silicon Valley / article at vator

"The Facebook IPO has reinforced the new calculus for investors. In the past, if you were a great VC, you could make USD100 million on an investment in 5-7 years. Today, social media startups can return 100’s of millions or even billions in less than 3 years.

.... nascent startups are in material science, sensors, robotics, medical devices, life sciences, etc., more and more frequently VCs whose firms would have looked at these deals or invested in these sectors, are now only interested in whether it runs on a smart phone or tablet.

If investors have a choice of investing in a blockbuster cancer drug that will pay them nothing for fifteen years or a social media application that can go big in a few years, which do you think they're going to pick?"

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What comes after Social Networking?
The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test. 


Sunday, May 20, 2012

Games at eHarmony soon!





Right Brain Advertising had prepared fresh documents about eHarmony. Some of them with several mistakes.

They include.

- Homepage
"Welcome to the Right Brain Advertising eHarmony page! For the past several months we have done research on social media habits as well as the online dating
industry in order to come up with innovative solutions for eHarmony."


innovative solutions for eHarmony??? The only one is to replace eHarmony, 12+ years old & obsolete site, performing as placebo, with a a new site with a new matching algorithm using the 16PF5 test or similar including the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment.


- Brand Analysis

- Consumer Analysis
".... online dating might be making a shift toward locationbased mobile dating apps, something that eHarmony does not currently have. Competitors that already have location-based mobile dating apps include Blendr, Grindr, OkCupid Locals, and HowAboutWe. Furthermore, social networking sites like Facebook allow people to meet each other and compare profiles for free." [That is only for short term mating, for instant gratifications, for flirting.]

- Digital Platform

- channel Mix
"The way our consumers will come across our advergame is by a link on the eHarmony homepage to the advergame microsite as they sign into their accounts."
"Our customers will not only be entertained but they will also get dating practice from playing. The game is a virtual speed dating game with avatars. The goal of the game is to earn points by remembering specific facts about each speed dater with whom you've interacted. For the gamers who are already eHarmony customers they can win a subscription of the calling feature on their profile, gift cards for friends and family members or a promotion code for their subscription."

"For gamers who aren't subscribed to eHarmony they can receive incentives to joining, like a free match weekend."

- Creative Concepts

eHarmony's CEO failed to launch eHarmony Inc.'s IPO
Then failed to sell al eHarmony Inc.'s proprierties to IAC (match, Chemistry, OkCupid and others)
eHarmony's CEO should had launched a new site with a new matching algorithm to replace eHarmony, 12+ years old & obsolete site, performing as placebo, but he failed.


What is next?
Trying to sell ALL the pieces of eHarmony at Second Market?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
 but no one is using the 16PF5 to assess personality of its members!
 but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
 but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
 but no one is scientifically proven!


I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.

Breaking "the online dating sound barrier" is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 6.7.6.8.9.6.7.7.8.7.2.5.8.7.3.4 is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 7.7.6.8.8.7.6.5.8.7.4.5.7.7.3.4
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

All other proposals are .............. NOISE

Saturday, May 19, 2012

ACM Recommender Systems 2012 Conference

ACM Recommender Systems 2012 Conference

Dublin, Ireland 9th - 13th September 2012


"The ACM Recommender System conference is the premier international forum for the presentation of new research results, systems and techniques in the broad field of recommender systems.
Recommendation is a particular form of information filtering, that exploits past behaviours and user similarities to generate a list of information items that is personally tailored to an end-user's preferences. The sixth conference in this series, RecSys 2012, will bring together researchers and practitioners from academia and industry to present the latest results and identify new trends and challenges in providing recommendation components in a range of innovative application contexts. As RecSys brings together the main international research groups working on recommender systems, along with many of the world's leading e-commerce companies, in the last number of years, it has become the most important annual conference for the presentation and discussion of recommender system research."


What comes after Social Networking?
The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Recommender systems (a.k.a recommendation engines) can be based on:

- past actions (as the formerly Beacon at Facebook)

- a pattern of personal preferences (by collaborative filtering, as the actual one at Facebook) The main disadvantage with recommendation engines based on
collaborative filtering is when users instead of providing their personal preference try to guess the global preference and they introduce bias in the recommendation algorithm.

- personality traits of users.

Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones
(past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users.
Have you seen they need to calculate personality similarity between users?
Have you seen there are different formulas to calculate similarity?
In case you did not notice, recommender systems are morphing to .......... compatibility matching engines!!!
They mostly use the Big5 to assess personality and the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate similarity.


WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
 but no one is using the 16PF5 to assess personality of its members!
 but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
 but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
 but no one is scientifically proven!


I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.

Breaking "the online dating sound barrier" is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 6.7.6.8.9.6.7.7.8.7.2.5.8.7.3.4 is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 7.7.6.8.8.7.6.5.8.7.4.5.7.7.3.4
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

All other proposals are .............. NOISE

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Google's Networks versus Facebook



Average CTR for Facebook ads was 0.051% during 2010.
Average CTR for Google's Networks ads is 0.4%, almost 8X as high as a Facebook ad.



Facebook vs. Google Display Advertising - Comparing the value of the world's largest advertising venues. [INFOGRAPHIC]




Monday, May 14, 2012

The Stir: Events by Match and Games on Match


The Stir: Events by Match

Games on Match

Lack of innovation at IAC, owner of Match, Chemistry, OKCupid, SinglesNet and others.
Instead of innovating, instead of launching a new site with a new matching algorithm to replace Chemistry, 7+ years old & obsolete site, performing as placebo, the brains of the IAC launch Events and Games.

Innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites. Or launching new ones with the same stupidities as the old ones.

The Online Dating Industry needs Innovations, but the innovations the Online Dating Industry needs will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment.

I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.

Breaking "the online dating sound barrier" is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 6.7.6.8.9.6.7.7.8.7.2.5.8.7.3.4 is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 7.7.6.8.8.7.6.5.8.7.4.5.7.7.3.4
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

All other proposals are .............. NOISE

Saturday, May 12, 2012

DoskonalaPara "new" test & features.











Last year, March 2011, I had reviewed DoskonalaPara.

DoskonalaPara claims:
"our test
The main goal of the portal was to provide our users with the tools for precise and quick to find true love.
For these reasons, invited the psychologist George Utnika Radoslaw,  who created us specifically for the test. It consists of 35 questions, after completion, the user receives an accurate description of his personality. It is then compared to other users.  In addition, take into account the expectations of the future  union, a common housekeeping, leisure, work or family. The combination of personality and expectations gives amazing results, so users can easily find the love of his life."


DoskonalaPara is another HOAX in the Online Dating Industry, with any Scientific Proof (uses an IPSATIVE personality test) like Chemistry.

Now relaunches imitating Badoo!

Friday, May 11, 2012

Spark Networks, Inc Q1 2012 Highlights


Average paying subscribers increase 36% to 241,000

Revenue ended March 31, 2012 USD 14.6 Million
Net Loss USD 1.7 Million

Spark Networks: years without innovating and drawing balance sheets! C level executives receive high salaries, shareholders receive losses.

Tastebuds, another HOAX



Tastebuds is a HOAX, if you like song A and other woman likes song A also, that does not mean you and that woman like each other. Moreover profiling by music preferences to assess personality
video preferences to assess personality
color preferences to assess personality
bookmarks preferences to assess personality
handwriting analysis to assess personality
purchases and buying trends from credit cards to assess personality
and other methods like them
add a lot of distortion to the measurement.


See also:
 Auralist: Introducing Serendipity into Music Recommendation.

ASoundMatch and Behavioural Recommender Systems 


The Online Dating Industry is performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created.
There is no/weak Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms like ISO 9001:2008 for customer service, except for the Indian company Shaadi.
The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%).

C-Level executives are more worried about their golf scores than their company's long term strategy and innovations.

The Online Dating Industry needs to kill the Matchmaking Industry, like computers killed typewriters.
The biggest scammers are not from Ghana or Nigeria. They are precisely marketing executives from big sites. They use credit card billing trickery.
Lack Of Innovation & Decadence can summarize the Online Dating Industry since years. Innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites. Or launching new ones with the same stupidities as the old ones.


The Online Dating Industry needs Innovations, but the innovations the Online Dating Industry needs will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment.
Only 3 major discoveries can help to revolutionize the online dating industry.
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. "Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (FORGET Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences)
III) What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy. Compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.

Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

4 German Dating Sites invented SPIN

4 German Dating Sites invented SPIN  (Seriöse Partnersuche im Internet)

If they would had certified ISO9001:2008 like Shaadi they would had no need to invent SPIN.

IQ Elite relaunches, imitates Badoo









Please remember IQ tests are ability tests, answers could be Right or Wrong, so the questions should be sorted in increasing difficulty forming a Rasch Hierarchy. Those IQ tests sould be constructed using Modern Test Theory / Item Response Theory (IRT).
Intelligent Elite, Brainiac Dating, IQ Gorgeous and others like them DO NOT meet IRT, they are all ... rubbish.


Moreover Intelligent Elite claims:
Compatibilidad Científica
¡Nuestro servicio de compatibilidad científica utiliza tus criterios y nuestro algoritmo para ofrecerte las mejores coincidencias! El servicio se adapta y aprende acerca de tus preferencias con el tiempo.
translated as:
Scientific Compatibility
Our scientific compatibility service uses your criteria and our algorithm to bring you the best matches! The service adapts and learns about your preferences over time.
That is a HOAX, they don not have any scientific proof.
Moreover: In a previous post I had reviewed IQ tests for dating
Intelligent Elite offers the Swiss 16PT, an adapted Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) ipsative test (not to be mistaken with the normative 16PF5)

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

new federal regs and recent court decisions

New federal regs and recent court decisions are about to affect all US online subscription, membership site and email publishers. 


Subscription Site Insider is running an exclusive, new webinar next Tuesday May 15 starring attorney Lisa Dubrow
She'll cover:
-  What a recent court ruling against WallStreetJournal means.
-  New FTC regulations regarding data, email opt-ins and privacy.
-  Why sites shouldn't say transactions are "safe and secure".
-  How privacy laws affect teen-aged customers.
-  Why sites may no longer be able to share attendee contacts with event or webinar sponsors.

SinglesBee is True rebranded.









Lack Of Innovation & Decadence can summarize the Online Dating Industry since years.

CONFIRMED! The Return of the Living Dead again!
The people behind TRUE had duplicated TRUE as a free site and called it SinglesBee. There is no innovation.

The same with IAC, they had failed with DownToEarth then rebranded to sTir.
POF and OkCupid are freemium, they want daters to upgrade memberships. Purely free model is dead.