Monday, September 30, 2013

How to copycat eHarmony, 13+ years old obsolete site.

As an Indian company plans to copycat eHarmony online dating site, in different languages: here is a brief post on how to copycat eHarmony, 13+ years old obsolete site.
eHarmony was previously copycatted by TeAmoRu, eSynchrony and others.

eHarmony has 2 bogus patents about its Compatibility Matching Algorithm, none of them explains in detail the actual Compatibility Matching Algorithm in use in their sites.

Patent No. US 6,735,568 B1: Method and System for Identifying People Who are Likely to Have a Successful Relationship [eHarmony for singles]

Patent No. US 7,454,357 B2: Method and System for Identifying People Who are Likely to Have a Successful Relationshi. This application is continuation of Patent No. US 6,735,568 B1, to include “eHarmony Marriage, which provides advice and tools in a private, personalized program”
[eHarmony for singles and for married persons]

eHarmony, a 13+ years old obsolete site, uses a Compatibility Matching Algorithm based on personality similarity with the Big5 normative personality test and Dyadic Adjustment Scale (invented by Dr. Graham B. Spanier in 1976) as its core. The Guided Communication Process (a mutual filtering step) is an appendix of its main matching algorithm.

eHarmony's Compatibility Matching Algorithm consists of 2 stages.
* A mutual filtering stage common to any online dating site like PlentyOfFish, Match, Chemistry, True, PerfectMatch, Parship, MeeticAffinity, OkCupid, Be2, FriendScout24, etc.
* The core stage.

The mutual filtering stage includes your race, age range, physical appearance, income, religion, leisure activities and sports, skills, location, drinking and smoking habits, likes & dislikes, if you want children or if you have children under 18 living with you, pets, etc. and the same items you will desire in any prospective partner.

The core stage of eHarmony's Compatibility Matching Algorithm:
1) The normative Big5 test to assess personality (The Big 5 is good for guidance/orientation purposes but not good enough for predictive purposes)
2) Dyadic Adjustment Scale (invented in 1976) to calculate compatibility (similarity) between prospective mates.
3) The Guided Communication Process (a mutual filtering step) designed to narrow even more the field of persons you give a better chance of getting along with, and also it is useful for feedback purposes.

eHarmony is not "scientifically proven" because eHarmony Labs had never proven eHarmony's matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships -and very low divorce rates- than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one's own, or other technique as the control group in a peer reviewed Scientific Paper for the majority (over 90%) of eHarmony's members.
Moreover the entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%), in the same range as searching by your own.


eHarmony failed its  IPO last 2011, 2010, er ... even 2008?

Now eHarmony's revenue is in the range of USD180 Million.
But with less than USD10 Million you can
 copycat eHarmony like TeAmoRu, eSynchrony and others.
or
 innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry, killing eHarmony forever. 

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Some valuable info from Match







"Match calls it a success when users exchange three e-mails (messages).
Of course, as in offline romance, these relationships often end in heartache; Match says that about half of its current subscribers are repeat customers. If nothing else, those returnees can take solace in this. "


Some months ago I saw the paper "One-Way Mirrors in Online Dating: A Randomized Field Experiment", that shows the dynamic of the site. (seems like casual dating sites, 20% of users sent 80% of messages)

about eHarmony failed IPO last 2011, 2010, er ... even 2008?

Reading some old info about eHarmony failed IPO last 2011, 2010, er  .... even 2008?




GreenCrest Capital valued eHarmony in the USD 700 - USD 900 Million range.
"A Date for the Long Term - GreenCrest Capital Reveals Report on eHarmony's Hidden Value"

eHarmony's revenue estimated at USD 274 Million in 2010.
So its valuation should had been no more than USD 400 Million range. (1.5 times its revenue)

Now eHarmony's revenue is in the range of USD180 Million.
But with less than USD10 Million you can
 copycat eHarmony like TeAmoRu, eSynchrony and others.
or
 innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry, killing eHarmony forever.

Friday, September 27, 2013

Zoosk (rumored to be going public this year) 2013

Zoosk (rumored to be going public this year) accoding to article at CNN money.

If Zoosk plans its IPO, I will denounce Zoosk at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for fraud. Zoosk's Scientific Matchmaking Service (ZSMS) is a HOAX.

Recently, PlentyOfFish (POF), revenue USD40Million year, failed to be acquired by IAC Personals.
If the strategy of IAC is to grow acquiring sites, it means they can not innovate any more in the Online Dating Industry. Last innovation was Chemistry during 2005 (perhaps it will be closed soon).

An Indian company plans to copycat eHarmony in different languages, soon. eHarmony was previously copycatted by TeAmoRu, eSynchrony and others. eHarmony's revenue is in the range of USD180Million.

Free/freemium online dating sites like PlentyOfFish and OKCupid are only marketing tools useful to send prospective customers to paid online dating sites. The same for social dating applications like Tinder and Twoo, marketing tools to migrate free users to Match/ Meetic and make them pay there.

The main threat for online dating sites is a new Legislation to force them disclose how many active members they have (Premium members: paid or with gift subscriptions) and to conduct ID verification, that will kill Free/freemium online dating sites like Zoosk, Tinder, Twoo, PlentyOfFish, OKCupid and other.
Some time ago, a U.S. Class Action Calls Match a 'Scam' / More than 90% of potential dates are "phantoms," suit charged then Match had morphed its marketing campaign.
During 2008, a lawsuit against Parship in Belgium about "pratiques commerciales trompeuses" forced Parship to disclose how many paid members it had in Belgium (Parship lied about their customers; 80.000 announced, 5.004 in reality, a 6.25% conversion rate, the same to say over 93% inactive profiles!!! )
During January 2011, former CEO of Match LATAM Countries recognized 75% inactive profiles at Match Argentina.

Even with no legislation the power of word of mouth killed Be2! That should be a case of study for stupid investors' series. Other online dating companies are in the same road (be killed by power of word of mouth by email chains).

Last Feb 2008, at iDate conference, Yagan's session, titled "Where's Dating 2.0? The Lack of Innovation in the Online Dating Industry ......... Our industry is missing the revolution, focusing on superfluous bells and whistles ...." but
Worldwide there are less than 7 million paid members (adding up all the ones at eHarmony, Match, Chemistry, Meetic, MeeticAffinity, OkCupid, PeopleMedia's Communities, PlentyOfFish, Parship/eCift, etc). The market remains enormous for new players.
Online Dating for serious daters does not need to be more social, it needs to be more effective, more efficient.

C-Level executives are more worried about their golf scores than their company’s long term strategy and innovations.
The biggest scammers are not from Ghana or Nigeria. They are precisely marketing executives from big sites. They use credit card billing trickery.
Lack Of Innovation & Decadence can summarize the Online Dating Industry since years. The Online Dating Industry is performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created. There is no/weak Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms.
No one compatibility matching method is Scientifically Proven.
The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%). In the same range as searching by your own.
The Online Dating Industry needs a major cataclysm to extinguish the big, old and obsolete dinosaurs (eHarmony, Match/Chemistry, PerfectMatch, Meetic, Parship, even PlentyOfFish, etc).
Soon … or later, that cataclysm will occur.


More Tech bubble, Twitter IPO next Thanksgiving 2013?

Many technology companies, without having a concrete business model (supposedly will generate revenue from advertising and premium subscription accounts) received millions of dollars in funding to offer something free, acquiring fastly a large mass of captive users as if they had made them addicts, and then the exit strategy (for investors) is to get someone to buy the company at a staggering figure, as did Blogger, Fotolog, MySpace, YouTube, Skype, Bebo and others.

A  social network / instant messaging blog based on a 140 characters lenght messages, for me is, obsolete, because the mobile concept evolving, meaning tablets with Wi-Fi Network access

Please read:
0.08% followers in twitter met in person with the leader.
"The Twitter Me Is Not The Real Me" 

Facebook stock ends above USD50 for the first time ever
Twitter IPO moving at an incredibly fast pace (it could be done by Thanksgiving 2013?)

Information about Meetic Group. Results for the 1st semester of 2013


 
From RESULTS FOR THE 1ST SEMESTER OF 2013

Some confusing numbers
  811,065 paid subscribers at 30th June 2013
 -733,158 paid subscribers at 30th June 2012
  ------------
   77,907

that can not be the SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE SUBSCRIBER BASE: +156,000 YEAR OVER YEAR.








The Group had a total of 768,572 subscribers at 31st December 2012, versus 762,099 subscribers at 31st December 2011.
Monthly ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) was €17.73 over the 2nd half of 2012, compared with €17.48  over the first half of 2012. Over the year as a whole, monthly ARPU was €17.60, versus €17.38  in 2011, a 1% improvement on the year.

The Group had a total of 762,099 subscribers at 31st December 2011, compared to 797,093 subscribers at 30th September 2011 and 858,197 subscribers at 31st December 2010.
Monthly ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) was €16.9 over the second half of 2011, versus €17.5 over the first half of 2011. Over the year as a whole, monthly ARPU was €17.2, versus €18.9 in 2010.



A 305 page document about Meetic Group.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Indian company plans to copycat eHarmony in different languages

Indian company plans to copycat eHarmony in different languages, soon !

eHarmony was previously copycatted by TeAmoRu, eSynchrony and others.

eHarmony is a 13 years old obsolete site and a HOAX, based on a big scientific fraud.


eHarmony is not "scientifically proven" because eHarmony Labs had never proven eHarmony's matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships -and very low divorce rates- than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one's own, or other technique as the control group in a peer reviewed Scientific Paper for the majority (over 90%) of eHarmony's members.
Moreover the entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%), in the same range as searching by your own.

Please read:
eHarmony, 13 years old obsolete site now!
eHarmony Inc. 2013 revenue: USD 180 million

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

New tutorial from ESSIR 2013 Recommenders Systems









Last August I has posted about IJCAI-13, the 23rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence / Beijing, China from August 3-9, 2013.

Now I show you a tutorial of the 9th European Summer School in Information Retrieval from 2-6 September 2013 - Granada, Spain.

Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform far better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users. They need to calculate personality similarity between users but there are different formulas to calculate similarity.

In case you did not notice, recommender systems are morphing to .......... compatibility matching engines, as the same used in the Online Dating Industry since years, with low success rates!!! because they mostly use the Big5 to assess personality and the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate similarity.
Please remember: Personality traits are highly stable in persons over 25 years old to 45 years old.



Want to innovate in the Online Dating Industry for serious daters?
Only one road to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry. Same road to innovate in the Personality Based Recommender Systems arena!

Monday, September 23, 2013

discussion PAPER "Affection, Speed Dating and Heart Breaking"

"Affection, Speed Dating and Heart Breaking"

That paper explores the role of unilateral and idiosyncratic affection rents ("love") from being married with a specific individual in a matching model with individuals with heterogenous matching frequencies. We show that individuals suffer in expectation from being matched with individuals with high matching frequency. High-frequency daters have high reservation utilities for entering into a marriage. This makes them turn down many offers and makes them appear as "heart-breakers".

"....... we describe the formal structure and characterize the Markov perfect equilibrium in the matching model. In section 3 we provide the comparative static properties of this equilibrium and interpret these results. Section 4 concludes.  ......   The matching takes place as a Poisson process.  ........ We search for stationary Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE)."

That paper is part of a series of papers trying to explain stable marriage as an economic function (as a complex mental process).
They are useless for the Online Dating Industry.
Marital stability does not include marital satisfaction. A marriage can be stable but miserable. Latest Research in Theories of Romantic Relationships Development shows: compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.

Want to innovate in the Online Dating Industry for serious daters?
Only one road to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry. Same road to innovate in the Personality Based Recommender Systems arena!

paper "The many faces of assumed similarity in perceptions of personality"

 "The many faces of assumed similarity in perceptions of personality"



Abstract
We propose that most coefficients of assumed similarity in acquaintance ratings are based on actual similarity between observer and target rather than any bias to project self onto other. We assessed assumed similarity, actual similarity, and rater accuracy in 62 university roommate dyads who rated each other on 74 personality-related variables. Our findings indicate that our roommates (a) were actually alike on many variables, (b) knew this, rather than assumed it, and (c) applied this knowledge to enhance the accuracy of their ratings. We outline a model of judgment that urges three distinct concepts: true assumed similarity, known similarity, and spurious similarity. We conclude that personality ratings among acquaintances reflecting true assumed similarity are probably rare.


Please remember:
Similarity is a word that has different meanings for different persons or companies, it exactly depends on how mathematically is defined. I calculate overall similarity in personality patterns with (a proprietary) pattern recognition by correlation method. It takes into account the score and the trend to score of any pattern. Online daters are "distinguishable" instead of "exchangeable".

Please read also:
TWO new fresh papers for the Online Dating Industry.
Compatibility 2013 explained by eHarmony.

----------------------------
Fernando Ardenghi's List of Firsts:-
First person in the World to say the entire Online Dating Industry in 1st World Countries is a HOAX.
- First person in the World to say many Online Dating sites like eHarmony, PerfectMatch, Chemistry, PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor, MeeticAffinity, Parship, Be2 and others are performing as placebo, like patent medicine.
- First person in the World to discover the Online Dating Sound Barrier problem.
- First and Only person in the World to solve the Online Dating Sound Barrier problem.
- First person in the World to suggest the normative 16PF5 test or similar like 15FQ+ to measure personality of daters instead of ipsative tests like PerfectMatch or Chemistry or other normative less powerful tests like the Big5.
- First person in the World to say Online Dating sites should check if women are taking contraceptive pills or other hormonal therapy.
- First person in the World to reverse engineering several online dating sites offering compatibility matching methods.
- First person in the World to notice Personality Based Recommender Systems are like compatibility matching engines.
- First person in the World to suggest Online Dating sites should show Compatibility Distribution Curves to every and each dater.
- First person in the World to compile research about Theories of Romantic Relationship Development.
- First person in the World to openly say Conferences for the Online Dating Industry like iDate and ODS are rubbish.


Do you think you can innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry without taking into account the above list? No way.

 ---------------------------------
What comes after the Social Networking wave?
The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test.




Sunday, September 22, 2013

the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory-III (MCMI-III)

Recently I was asked about using the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory-III (MCMI-III) for seious online dating purposes.
Short answer: It CAN NOT outperform the 16PF5 test.

The Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory-III (MCMI-III) is quite similar to Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory.

Both the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory-III (MCMI-III) and the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory are NOT general personality instruments to be used with normal individuals.

Also, some time ago I was asked about the California Psychological Inventory (CPI), a self-report inventory created by Harrison Gough and currently published by Consulting Psychologists Press. The test was first published in 1956, and the most recent revision was published in 1987. It was created in a similar manner to the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI)—with which it shares 194 items. But unlike the MMPI, which focuses on maladjustment or clinical diagnosis, the CPI was created to assess the everyday "folk-concepts" that ordinary people use to describe the behavior of the people around them.


The Online Dating Industry does not need a 10% improvement, a 50% improvement or a 100% improvement. It does need "a 100 times better improvement"
The only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry is using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5 and expressing compatibility with eight decimals (needs a quantized pattern comparison method, part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation, to calculate similarity between prospective mates.)

High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.


Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.
  

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Top 86 tips from iDate 2013 Cologne (Köln)

Mark Brooks had published a list of Top 86 tips from iDate 2013 Cologne (Köln).

Not sure if they had talked about the future of the Online Dating Industry.
Worldwide there are less than 7 million paid members (adding up all the ones at eHarmony, Match, Chemistry, Meetic, MeeticAffinity, OkCupid, PeopleMedia's Communities, PlentyOfFish, Parship/eCift, and others). The market remains enormous for new players.

The Online Dating Industry needs to kill the Matchmaking Industry, like computers killed typewriters.

- Legislation for example. Perhaps the SPIN  (Seriöse Partnersuche im Internet) Kodex can evolve as a prospective NEW Legislation for Online Dating Sites to force them disclose how many active members they have (Premium members: paid or with gift subscriptions) ?
And also force them to conduct ID verification ?
Actually, the Online Dating Industry has no/weak Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms.
No one compatibility matching method is Scientifically Proven.
A variety of new laws, or new interpretations of existing laws, could subject dating sites to claims or otherwise harm their business. (extracted from IAC SEC filing)



 

- Innovations for the Online Dating Industry.
NO INNOVATIONS SINCE YEARS IN THE ONLINE DATING INDUSTRY.
C level executives are cooking barbecues under the water (selling smoke) and not paying attention to latest research from Academics which could be beneficial for the Online Dating Industry. Wasting precious time with Matchmakers which should be obsolete.  

eHarmony , True, PerfectMatch, MeeticAffinity, Parship, Be2, PlentyOfFish, Chemistry and others have a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms.
The Online Dating Industry does not need a 10% improvement, a 50% improvement or a 100% improvement. It does need "a 100 times better improvement" , a BIG innovation.

Actual matching algorithms used by eHarmony, Chemistry, PlentyOfFish and others, even behavioural recommender systems, can not be improved, they need to be discarded NOW. Because they are in the range of 3 to 4 prospective mates as selected / recommended / compatible for dating purposes per 1,000 members screened in the database. They all 3 are performing the same for serious daters, with a high percentage of false positives, like gun machines firing flowers.
They can not break the online dating sound barrier!
You do not need to improve a piston engine when you need a jet engine to break sound barrier.


Also Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform far better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users. They need to calculate personality similarity between users but there are different formulas to calculate similarity.
Recommender systems are morphing to ......... compatibility matching engines, as the same used in the Online Dating Industry since years, with low success rates, because they mostly use the Big5 to assess personality and the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate similarity.
(Personality traits are highly stable in persons over 25 years old to 45 years old)


Please read also:
The power of word of mouth killed Be2!
EliteMedianet GmbH. won lawsuit against Consumer Protection Center of Hamburg (VZHH).  

Friday, September 20, 2013

South American Market / 2 interesting papers

South American Market / 2 interesting papers

Prices and quality of broadband in Latin America: Benchmarking and trends
Connectivity in Latin America and the Caribbean: The role of Internet Exchange Points

Dating Site with Back-back Scoring and Match Algorithm by 2012 Nobel Laureate

"Our site listens to users' hearts and helps them to better realize their ultimate goal in using dating site. First we introduced back-back scoring, which is in itself novel and in line with human nature. Based on the score data, we use the 2012 Nobel Laureate's algorithm to compute a fair match set, and recommend to users. "
But ............. Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences are useless
Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform far better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users. They need to calculate personality similarity between users but there are different formulas to calculate similarity.
Recommender systems are morphing to ......... compatibility matching engines, as the same used in the Online Dating Industry since years, with low success rates, because they mostly use the Big5 to assess personality and the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate similarity.
(Personality traits are highly stable in persons over 25 years old to 45 years old)


The Online Dating Industry needs innovations but they will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment: STRICT PERSONALITY SIMILARITY and not "meet other people with similar interests"
The 3 milestone discoveries of the 2001 - 2010 decade for Theories of Romantic Relationships Development are:
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. "Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences are useless)
III) What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy. Compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment. 

Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.


What comes after the Social Networking wave?
The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

More info for Instant Chemistry Canadian based company.

In a previous post I had written about "About Instant Chemistry Canadian based company "
Please read:
Women's Fertility and Mood Fluctuate in Tandem
Women's feelings toward their partners shift subtly during peak fertility

Fertile Women Have a Heightened Sense of Smell
Reaction to male pheromones is especially high


and
Featured Thesis: I'm Too Sexy For My Brands. 
PAPER "Partnership longevity and personality congruence in couples
PAPER "Assortative Mating and Personality in Human Couples: A Study Using Cloninger's Temperament and Character Inventory"
Please remember personality = temperament + character
Personality is composed of two basic types of traits:
traits that an individual acquires, dimensions of character;
and
traits with biological underpinnings, dimensions of temperament (Cloninger 1987).


PAPER "Changes in women's interpersonal styles"
Markey, P. M., & Markey, C. N.  (2011).  Changes in women's interpersonal styles across the menstrual cycle.  Journal of Research in Personality, 45, 439-499.
(this is the first study to examine the patterns in women's interpersonal qualities across the menstrual cycle and to relate these patterns to men's desired preferences in a mate.)  

If you plan to use/offer the 16PF5.
"Innovations: to take the 16PF5 test 3 times"
If a person can not take the 16PF5 test 3 times, he/she is not a serious dater and should be discarded.
Lots of persons could be interested in meeting/contacting other persons sharing nearly the same personality because they will be *predictable* for them.


(In a future post I will talk about the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory-III (MCMI-III)  that CAN NOT outperform the 16PF5 test for serious online dating purposes)


Individuals clearly desire a potential partner with a similar personality.
.... mismatches in personality are a frequently mentioned cause for relationship break-up. .......  educate people, especially singles, about what really matters in long-term relationships, for instance, similarity in personality, instead of complementarity.


The only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry is using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5 and expressing compatibility with eight decimals (needs a quantized pattern comparison method, part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation, to calculate similarity between prospective mates.)

High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.



Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.
 



About Instant Chemistry Canadian based company

Instant Chemistry Launches the World's First Genetic Testing Service Exclusively for the Dating Industry.

They now offer the same as Basisnote, GenePartner, ScientificMatch and other proposals offering DNA matching which are only based on the T_shirt Experiment that only proved:
normally cycling women (not pregnant and not taking contraceptive pills) are (temporarily) attracted by the perspiration scent of clothes used by men with a Major Histocompatibility Complex MHC more dissimilar to theirs,

and not proved: women attracted by those men for long term mating with commitment.
and
2 Scientific Papers debunk their claims.
1) "Human oestrus" Gangestad & Thornhill (2008)
"Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"

2) "Does the contraceptive pill alter mate choice in humans?" Alvergne & Lummaa (2009)
".. whereas normally cycling women express a preference for MHC (Major Histocompatibility Complex) dissimilarity in mates, pill users prefer odours of MHC-SIMILAR men, indicating that pill use might eliminate adaptive preferences for genetic dissimilarity."
................
"Recently, Roberts et al. attempted to eliminate these potential confounds by adopting a within-subject design in which women's mate preferences were assessed before and after they began taking the pill. Women starting the pill showed a significant preference shift towards MHC SIMILARITY compared with three months before the pill was taken, a shift that was not observed in the control group of normally cycling women." 

Please remember personality = temperament + character
Personality is composed of two basic types of traits:
traits that an individual acquires, dimensions of character;
and
traits with biological underpinnings, dimensions of temperament (Cloninger 1987).


and also read the German paper PAPER "Beyond the heritability of life satisfaction – The roles of personality and twin-specific influences"

"In our multivariate behavior genetic analyses, we found that all genetic influences on life satisfaction were also genetic influences on personality."

 The Online Dating Industry needs innovations but they will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment: STRICT PERSONALITY SIMILARITY and not "meet other people with similar interests"
The 3 milestone discoveries of the 2001 - 2010 decade for Theories of Romantic Relationships Development are:
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. "Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences are useless)
III) What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy. Compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.

* Actual online dating sites offering compatibility matching methods, when calculating compatibility between prospective mates, have less or at least the same precision as searching on one's own. [in the range of 3 or 4 persons compatible per 1,000 persons screened]
* That is because they use:
a) simplified versions of personality traits, instead of the 16PF5 or similar with the complete inventory (16 variables)
b) inadequate quantitative methods to calculate compatibility between prospective mates.

To solve that problem I propose:
1) the 16PF5 or similar normative personality test to measure personality of normal persons over 26 years old interested in serious dating.
No actual online dating site offering compatibility matching methods uses the 16PF5 normative test available in different languages or similar test.
2) a new quantitative method to calculate compatibility between prospective mates, based on quantized pattern comparison (part of pattern recognition by correlation)
The value of my algorithm is to achieve far more precision than searching on one's own [in the range of 3 persons compatible per 100,000 persons screened, 100 times better than actual competitors]


WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!


 

TC Cribs: eHarmony’s Santa Monica HQ video.

TechCrunch published an article and video about eHarmony’s Santa Monica HQ.

eHarmony is not "scientifically proven" because eHarmony Labs had never proven eHarmony's matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships -and very low divorce rates- than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one's own, or other technique as the control group in a peer reviewed Scientific Paper for the majority (over 90%) of eHarmony's members.
Moreover the entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%), in the same range as searching by your own.

Please read:
eHarmony, 13 years old obsolete site now!
eHarmony Inc. 2013 revenue: USD 180 million

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

A computer just acquired a typewriter

"A computer just acquired a typewriter to innovate?" (PlentyOfFish Acquires FastLife)

Worldwide there are less than 7 million paid members (adding up all the ones at eHarmony, Match, Chemistry, Meetic, MeeticAffinity, OkCupid, PeopleMedia's Communities, PlentyOfFish, Parship/eCift, and others). The market remains enormous for new players.
Online Dating for serious daters does not need to be more social, it needs to be more effective, more efficient.
 


Online Dating for serious daters does not need  to go offline. That is a complete waste of time. 
READ: Two papers debunking speeddating for serious dating:

"The chance for mating with a speed-dating partner was 6%, and was increased by men's short-term mating interest; the chance for relating was 4%, and was increased by women's long-term mating interest.
Another way of looking at the probabilities of 6% and 4% is to convert them into time and money spent on multiple speeddating events, assuming independence of the outcomes of each event. Assuming that one has to pay 30 Euros for a speed-dating event lasting 3 hours including everything, finding a relationship partner requires investing 75 hours and 750 Euros on average.
"



Also read:
PlentyOfFish failed to be acquired by IAC 

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Now in 2013 I think C-Level executives from the Online Dating Industry do not want to innovate and offer a high effective/efficiency compatibility matching algorithm, because they are like burglars who are stealing the money of the daters, they scam daters with automatic rebilling trickery.  

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!

The only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry is using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5 and expressing compatibility with eight decimals (needs a quantized pattern comparison method, part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation, to calculate similarity between prospective mates.)

High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.



Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.
 

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

PlentyOfFish failed to be acquired by IAC

A 2 years long negotiations reached an end.

The main obstacle was the price. With USD 10 Million anyone can develop a new compatibility matching site, even to replace Chemistry, a 8 years old obsolete site.

If the owners of PlentyOfFish can not innovate in the Online Dating Industry, the best strategy for them was to try to sell PlentyOfFish.

The best timing to sell your online dating company is when you do not need to, when it is a healthy ship and not when the owner/CEO is simply jumping from a sinking ship. New legislation can kill free/freemium sites. A variety of new laws, or new interpretations of existing laws, could subject dating sites to claims or otherwise harm their business.

The IAC (InterActiveCorporation, nasdaq: IACI) previously tried to acquire eHarmony for USD 500 Million during November 2011, but failed.


Free/freemium online dating sites like PlentyOfFish and OKCupid are only marketing tools useful to send prospective customers to paid online dating sites like Chemistry and eHarmony.
When free users got tired of free sites, they migrate to a paid one.
Revenue of IAC Personals (Match, Chemistry, OKCupid, Meetic, ParPerfeito, MeeticAffinity, SinglesNet, People's Media Communities, DateHookUp and others) is in the range of USD 750 Million.
Revenue of eHarmony' sites (USA, Canada, Australia, UK and Brazil) is in the range of USD 180 Million.
Revenue of IAC Personals + Revenue of eHarmony' sites == USD 930 Million, nearly USD 1 B.
Revenue of PlentyOfFish Media's sites (PlentyOfFish, eVow and several dating sites powered by a white label dating company) is in the range of USD 40 Million.
USD 40 Million / USD 1,000 Million == 4% of market (in revenue).
PlentyOfFish has the traffic but others receive the money.


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The Simpsons, Apple, Facebook, LinkedIn, WordPress, Google, Hotmail, Yahoo, YouTube, Blogger, Wikipedia, Bing, Twitter, Skype are BIG successes in Argentina!!!
I have the theory that if something is successful in Argentina, it could be a success in the World.
If it can NOT be a success here in Argentina, it will definitely NOT be a success in the World.

NO online dating company (for serious daters) has success here in Argentina nor Brazil or other Latin American country.