VC predictions for 2013 from Vator

VCs weigh in on e-commerce, mobile, health, personal finance, adtech, and more.

I add:

What comes after the Social Networking era?
My bet: The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be …... Personalization!


Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users.

 Have you seen they need to calculate personality similarity between users?
Have you seen there are different formulas to calculate similarity?
In case you did not notice, recommender systems are morphing to .......... compatibility matching engines, as the same used in the Online Dating Industry since years, with low success rates!!! because they mostly use the Big5 to assess personality and the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate similarity.
Please remember: Personality traits are highly stable in persons over 25 years old to 45 years old.

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven! The only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry is using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5 and expressing compatibility with eight decimals (needs a quantized pattern comparison method, part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation, to calculate similarity between prospective mates.)
High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.
Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.

comScore's reports. Argentina is 1st in social nets.

comScore has released 2 fresh reports:

"State of the Internet in Q3 2012" includes information about online dating sites.

I add:
Worldwide there are less than 7 million paid members (adding up all the ones at eHarmony, Match, Chemistry, Meetic, MeeticAffinity, OkCupid, PeopleMedia's Communities, PlentyOfFish, Parship/eCift, etc). The market remains enormous for new players.
Online Dating for serious daters does not need to be more social, it needs to be more effective, more efficient.
Lack Of Innovation & Decadence can summarize the Online Dating Industry since years. The Online Dating Industry is performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created. There is no/weak Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms.
No one compatibility matching method is Scientifically Proven.
The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%). In the same range as searching by your own.

"Argentina is the most involved country with global social networks consuming roughly 10 hours a month on average per user."

I say:
The Simpsons, Apple, Facebook, LinkedIn, WordPress, Google, Hotmail, Yahoo, YouTube, Blogger, Wikipedia, Bing, Twitter, Skype are BIG successes in Argentina!!!
I have the theory that if something is successful in Argentina, it could be a success in the World.
If it can NOT be a success here in Argentina, it will definitely NOT be a success in the World.
NO online dating company (for serious daters) has success here in Argentina nor Brazil or other Latin American country.

Please read also:

"The state of Internet in Argentina" 

 Latin American countries digital future 2012!

"The Mobile Digital Omnivore" from ComScore UK

The TWIN Recommender System / part 2

In a previous post, more than a year ago, I had written about the TWIN (Tell Me What I Need) Personality Based Recommender System.

The paper "Evaluating the Similarity Estimator Component of the TWIN Personality-based
Recommender System"  explains how that recommender performs.
 "In addition to the classical collaborative filtering and content based approaches, taking into account ratings, preferences and demographic characteristics of the users, a new type of Recommender System, based on personality parameters, has been emerging recently. In this paper we describe the TWIN (Tell Me What I Need) Personality Based Recommender System, and report on our experiments and experiences of utilizing techniques which allow the extraction of the personality type from text (following the Big Five model popular in the psychological research). We estimate the possibility of constructing the personality-based Recommender System that does not require users to fill in personality questionnaires."

Unfortunately, like the PersonalityML, the TWIN approach is the WRONG approach to innovate in the Personality Based Recommender Systems Arena.

Again: the Big5 personality test is good for orientative purposes but not good enough for predictive purposes.

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users.
Have you seen they need to calculate personality similarity between users?
Have you seen there are different formulas to calculate similarity?
In case you did not notice, recommender systems are morphing to .......... compatibility matching engines, as the same used in the Online Dating Industry since years, with low success rates!!! but ...... they mostly use the Big5 to assess personality and the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate similarity.

The RIGHT approach to innovate in the Personality Based Recommender Systems Arena  is exactly the same approach to innovate in the Online Dating Industry.  The 16PF5 test or similar to assess personality traits and a new method to calculate similarity between quantized patterns.

 

More about PersonalityML new markup language

In a previous post I had written about the new  PersonalityML markup language.

The article/paper " PERSONALITYML: A MARKUP LANGUAGE TO STANDARDIZE THE USER PERSONALITY IN RECOMMENDER SYSTEMS . Revista GEINTEC- Gestão, Inovação e Tecnologias, v. 2, p. 255-273, 2012." explains that approach, but it is not necessary to develop/create a new markup language to include personality traits of users/daters for the Personality Based Recommender Systems Arena or the Online Dating Industry.

The RIGHT approach to innovate in the Personality Based Recommender Systems Arena  is exactly the same approach to innovate in the Online Dating Industry.

about new markup language called PersonalityML

PersonalityML developed by the Artificial Intelligence and Affective Computing from the Brazilian Universidade Federal de Sergipe, is the WRONG approach to innovate in the Personality Based Recommender Systems Arena. It is not necessary to develop/create a new markup language to include personality traits of users/daters.
Moreover all indirect methods to assess personality traits add distortion [eg: how to extract user personality by using a keyboard (typing pattern)] and the Big5 Model is an oversimplification, good enough to orientative purposes but not good enough for predictive purposes. Remember the Ten-Item Personality Inventory (TIPI) is a ten-item measure of the Big Five personality dimensions – 2 items for each of the 5 dimensions. Each item is rated on a 7-point scale that ranges from 1 (disagree strongly) to 7 (agree strongly). The measure was created to be finished within a minute or so, though it sacrifices some of the reliability and validity found in longer measures of the Big Five personality dimensions.

Which is the RIGHT approach to innovate in the Personality Based Recommender Systems Arena?
The same approach to innovate in the Online Dating Industry == 16PF5 test or similar to assess personality traits and a new method to calculate similarity between quantized patterns. Oh that is exactly ............ guess ............. yes ........ LIFEPROJECT METHOD, ready since 2001!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users.

Have you seen they need to calculate personality similarity between users?
Have you seen there are different formulas to calculate similarity?
In case you did not notice, recommender systems are morphing to .......... compatibility matching engines, as the same used in the Online Dating Industry since years, with low success rates!!! but ...... they mostly use the Big5 to assess personality and the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate similarity.

Please remember: Personality traits are highly stable in persons over 25 years old to 45 years old.

 
In compatibility matching methods there are 2 steps:
1) to objectively measure personality traits or other human variables (with the 16PF5 test) without distortion.
2) to calculate compatibility between prospective mates 

IPSATIVE personality tests are OBSOLETE (self-descriptive questionnaires) and should be discarded: MBTI (PerfectMatch), DISC (ThomasKnowsPeople), Enneagram (Dopasowani) or other proprietary ipsative tests like the ones used at Chemistry, ButterfliesAgain, Doskonalapara, PembePanjur, LittleHint, oneGoodLove and others.

NORMATIVE personality tests like Big5 versions used at PlentyOfFish, eHarmony, Meetic Affinity, Parship, Be2, True are good for orientative purposes but not good enough for predictive purposes.
"Because the Big Five groups the more specific primary-level factors, feedback organized around the five Global Factor scales is more easily understood. For detailed feedback or predictive purposes, one should assess the more specific primary factors. Research has shown that more specific factors like the primary scales of the 16PF Questionnaire predict actual behavior better than the Big 5 Global Factors. For example, one extravert (a bold, fearless, high-energy type) may differ considerably from another (a sweet, warm, sensitive type), depending on the extraversion-related primary scale score patterns, so deeper analysis is typically warranted." Extracted from the 16PF5 Manual

Normative tests can not simply be translated, because you need the norm for that test, and that norm is actualized each and every time Census Figures are released

The 16PF5 test is available in
- English for the United States and the Norm for the United States (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of the United States).
- English for Canada and the Norm for Canada (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of Canada)
- English for the United Kingdom and the Norm for the United Kingdom (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of the United Kingdom).
- English for Australia and the Norm for Australia (sample of individuals with the same demographic characteristics of Australia).
- French for France and the Norm for France.
- German for Germany and the Norm for Germany.
- Spanish for Spain and the Norm for Spain.
- Italian for Italy and the Norm for Italy.
and many more "With over 60 years of research and application behind it, the 16PF5 has become internationally well known and respected, with over 20 different translated versions."

The output of the 16PF5 test are 16 variables STens (Standard Tens) taking integer values from 1 to 10. STens divide the score scale into ten units.
STens have the advantage that they enable results to be thought of in terms of bands of scores, rather than absolute raw scores. These bands are narrow enough to distinguish statistically significant differences between candidates, but wide enough not to over emphasize minor differences between candidates.


WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven! The only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry is using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5 and expressing compatibility with eight decimals (needs a quantized pattern comparison method, part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation, to calculate similarity between prospective mates.)
High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.
Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.

What comes after Social Networking?
My bet: The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be …. Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test. The market remains enormous!!

More screenshots of eHarmony USA redesign.

This new version is really worse than the previous one.

This new eHarmony's version is intended to show a new test taker the feeling of high speed, instead of investing 40 minutes to answer the test thoroughly, it can be done in less than 10 minutes by fastly clicking the left button of the mouse, but it easily gets out of control.

There are some glitches in the new version and reviewing suggested profiles, one by one, is more time consuming.

eHarmony is a 12+ years old & obsolete site performing as placebo.

eHarmony's Team should had invested time, effort and money in designing a new site and not redesigning eHarmony's appearance.

TheCompleteMe rebrands to LikeIt

TheCompleteMe rebrands to LikeIt and ... will be game over soon as predicted in this blog. They will run out of money  and will be a "Stupid Investors' series" case of study.



Remember former executives from online dating sites are not entrepreneurs. Those former executives can cook a barbecue under the water, they are smoke sellers, but they are not going to innovate in nothing.


Social dating is vaporware. Online Dating for serious daters does not need to be more social, it needs to be more effective/efficient. It needs to reduce the false positives problem.
Innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites.
The Online Dating Industry needs innovations but they will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment.
Compatibility is all about a high level on personality* similarity* between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
*personality measured with a normative test.
*similarity: there are different ways to calculate similarity, it depends on how mathematically is defined.
STRICT PERSONALITY SIMILARITY and not "meet other people with similar interests"

eHarmony USA launches redesign!

Those stupids instead of innovating, adding more noise!
The light blue of the background imitates the one used at POF (PlentyOfFish)
The questions imitates the style used in recently Match's redesign (Latam)

This version is worse than the previous one.
You can click very fast using the mouse, and it could go out of control (what you click)

It includes 2 new features, to hide (former archive a match) and block (former delete) profiles.

Checking profiles is more time consuming than the former version. Profiles are called "a magazine all about you"

Prices only for 1 month and 12 months plans, no more the 3 or 6 months plans.

Conclusion:
I had challenged eHarmony's Team, several times,  to replace eHarmony, a 12+ years old & obsolete site, performing as placebo, with a a new site with a new matching algorithm using the 16PF5 test or similar including the 3 latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment.
But …. eHarmony’s Team don’t want to innovate in nothing and they will collapse next March 2013.