Thursday, May 5, 2016

MeetMe's (MEET) CEO Geoff Cook on Q1 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript (via SA)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3971759-meetmes-meet-ceo-geoff-cook-q1-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

Is MeetMe Broken?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3971834-meetme-broken

MeetMe Reports Record First Quarter 2016 Financial Results
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16477736-meetme-reports-record-first-quarter-financial-results

MeetMe -7.3% despite Q1 beat, raised 2016 guidance
http://seekingalpha.com/news/3180191-meetme-minus-7_3-percent-despite-q1-beat-raised-2016-guidance

My bet: Only a short term success. Social dating is vaporware. Online Dating for serious daters does not need to be more social, it needs to be more effective/efficient.  It needs to reduce the false positives problem and big data dating IS NOT the key to long-lasting romance.  The key to long-lasting romance is STRICT PERSONALITY SIMILARITY and not "meet other people with similar interests". 


Please see:
Security issues in mobile dating applications: attacks, malware and phishing. (via singleboersen-vergleich)
http://onlinedatingsoundbarrier.blogspot.com.ar/2016/04/security-issues-in-mobile-dating.html



MeetMe Reports Record Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and Net Income for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 
http://onlinedatingsoundbarrier.blogspot.com.ar/2016/02/meetme-reports-record-revenue-adjusted.html

Old data about eHarmony Japan big failure. Remember?

































 
 2012, 4 years ago I said:
 
A forbidden new about a big failure, a bluff to sell eHarmony to IAC perhaps, during the short tenure of Jeremy Verba as CEO, but nobody could talked about it. No blog said any word.
Nor Online Dating Insider nor Online Personals Watch.
Only one person in all the World tested eHarmony Japan during 2012. He is ... er... guess; yes, you know!

"99.7% of eHarmony's members will not be introduced to you", said the info from eHarmony Japan i.e. only 0.3% of members will be shown as a compatible partner for you; that is the power of eHarmony's matching algorithm (the effectiveness/efficiency of the matching algorithm.)

0.3% means: 3 persons per 1,000 persons screened. or 30 persons per 10,000 persons screened. or 300 persons per 100,000 persons screened. or 3,000 persons per 1,000,000 persons screened. or 30,000 persons per 10,000,000 persons screened.
30,000 persons per 10,000,000 persons screened is the population of a small city!!! (eHarmony claimed 12 million persons/profiles in its database as for 2012)
There is also a comic about that situation: "Zack Hill's mom joins eHarmony" Lois: Are you telling me that out of all these guys, you didn't like one? Jan: I did not. Lois: This is like the phone directory for a small town! Jan: The town of LoserVille.
http://onlinedatingsoundbarrier.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/eharmony-revealed-its-secret-sauce.html

Soon eHarmony will be a 14 years old obsolete site and a hoax based on a very big scientific fraud, because the Big Five model, was revealed as an incomplete and incorrect model to measure personality. Now Big Five model had been replaced by the HEXACO test (a.k.a Big Six test).

Astonished to see how eHarmony Inc. can operate in several countries using the Big Five model, that is the biggest mistake made by Psychologists since 20 years ago!!!

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Match Group's (MTCH) CEO Greg Blatt on Q1 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript (via SeekingAlpha)

 
 
OPERATING METRICS NOTES

    (a) Direct Revenue is revenue that is directly received from an end user of our products.
    (b) North America consists of our Dating businesses for customers located in the United States and Canada.
    (c) International consists of our Dating businesses for customers located outside of the United States and Canada.
    (d) Average PMC is calculated by summing the number of paid subscribers, or paid member count (PMC), at the end of each day in the relevant measurement period and dividing it by the number of calendar days in that period.
    (e) ARPPU, or Average Revenue per Paying User, is Direct Revenue in the relevant measurement period divided by the Average PMC in such period divided by the number of calendar days in such period.

   

   
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3971215-match-groups-mtch-ceo-greg-blatt-q1-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

Match Group (MTCH) Q1 2016 Strong Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Growth  but ... USD1.2 billion of long-term debt !!!
http://onlinedatingsoundbarrier.blogspot.com.ar/2016/05/match-group-mtch-q1-2016-strong-revenue.html

Is Alexa predicting the demise of PlentyOfFish? See how it decays since April 2016
Match Group Inc (NASDAQ:MTCH) overpaid USD575 Million in cash for it, past its prime and in decadence!
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/www.pof.com
I still think:
* The Match Group is only a collection of old and obsolete online dating sites: Match, Meetic, Chemistry, OkCupid, FriendScout24, OurTime, HowAboutWe, PlentyOfFish and many more and all of them are past their primes, reached operating ceiling and they are in decadence.

* The Match Group overpaid for PlentyOfFish (It was insane, USD575 Million for PlentyOfFish that past its prime 2 years ago). The Match Group had been doing all wrong, acquiring rotten companies to show illusory success to its investors.

* Tinder will not monetize as expected and it is cannibalizing Match. Tinder can collapse like Skout (problems with minors using it).
And Tinder is in war with other online dating application: Bumble backed by Badoo (powered by a Russian Mafia of hackers & spies)
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-US#q=tinder,+badoo,+plentyoffish,+zoosk,+pof,+internet+dating&cmpt=q

* The Match Group pays astronomical compensations to their C-level executives.

* The Match Group is not going to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry in the next years.

* Also be alerted that Barry Diller is over 74 years old and can "retire" this year.
The IAC and MTCH can collapse because he is like a Godfather. 

PAPER Improving Recommender Systems’ Performance on Cold-start Users and Controversial Items by a New Similarity Model

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/IJWIS-07-2015-0024



Similarity is a word that has different meanings for different persons or companies, it exactly depends on how mathematically is defined.
http://onlinedatingsoundbarrier.blogspot.com.ar/2015/04/paper-hybrid-personalized-recommender.html 

http://onlinedatingsoundbarrier.blogspot.com.ar/2016/02/paper-spatial-cascaded-model-for.html
 
Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform far better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
http://onlinedatingsoundbarrier.blogspot.com.ar/2016/03/paper-tensor-methods-and-recommender.html
 
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users. They need to calculate personality similarity between users.
http://onlinedatingsoundbarrier.blogspot.com.ar/2016/04/paper-predicting-personality-traits.html
In case you had not noticed, recommender systems are morphing to compatibility matching engines, as the same used in the Online Dating Industry. 
Which is the RIGHT approach to innovate in the Personality Based Recommender Systems Arena?
 
The same approach to innovate in the Online Dating Industry == 16PF5 test or similar to assess personality traits and a new method to calculate similarity between quantized patterns.  LIFEPROJECT METHOD 



Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Match Group (MTCH) Q1 2016 Strong Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Growth

 but ... USD1.2 billion of long-term debt !!!
 


      

http://ir.mtch.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=254224&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2164574


I still think:
* The Match Group is only a collection of old and obsolete online dating sites: Match, Meetic, Chemistry, OkCupid, FriendScout24, OurTime, HowAboutWe, PlentyOfFish and many more and all of them are past their primes, reached operating ceiling and they are in decadence.

* The Match Group overpaid for PlentyOfFish (It was insane, USD575 Million for PlentyOfFish that past its prime 2 years ago). The Match Group had been doing all wrong, acquiring rotten companies to show illusory success to its investors.

* Tinder will not monetize as expected and it is cannibalizing Match. Tinder can collapse like Skout (problems with minors using it).
And Tinder is in war with other online dating application: Bumble backed by Badoo (powered by a Russian Mafia of hackers & spies)


* The Match Group pays astronomical compensations to their C-level executives.

* The Match Group is not going to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry in the next years.

* Also be alerted that Barry Diller is over 74 years old and can "retire" this year 


The IAC and MTCH can collapse because he is like a Godfather.  

Match Group (MTCH) Q1 2016 Earnings Preview: What to Expect

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/match-group-mtch-q1-earnings-preview-what-to-expect-cm615024

* The Match Group is not going to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry in the next years.
http://onlinedatingsoundbarrier.blogspot.com.ar/2016/05/funny-video-okcupid-co-founder-how.html