Saturday, August 31, 2013

God Save the Queen: They are investigating.


Its Internet crimes division is investigating a big online dating company. Perhaps one of its main investors is only a BIG PONZI scheme.

It is NOT the only one    seriously   investigating      suspicious     activities      from   other  Online Dating sites!

More news soon!

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

NEW FRESH paper "Beyond the heritability of life satisfaction ..."


I previous posts I had written about punches to behavioural matching algorithms like the one used at Match, the one used at Zoosk, and the one used at PlentyOfFish (POF).

This new German paper is another big punch to .... behavioural matching algorithms and genetic matchmaking!

Please remember personality = temperament + character
Personality is composed of two basic types of traits:
traits that an individual acquires, dimensions of character;
and
traits with biological underpinnings, dimensions of temperament (Cloninger 1987).



PAPER "Beyond the heritability of life satisfaction – The roles of personality and twin-specific influences"
"In a behavior genetic design, we investigated individual differences in life satisfaction and its relation to personality with respect to both internal and external influences. We questioned the absence of shared environment and examined the specific contribution of additive and non-additive genetic influences.
We also tested for twin-specific environmental influences in a total sample of 1308 dyads including identical and fraternal twins, siblings, mother–child and grandparent–child pairs. The results showed substantial shared environmental influences on life satisfaction that varied between twins and non-twins, supporting twin-specific environmental influences. Additive and non-additive genetic influences on life satisfaction were completely shared with personality. The remaining variance could be explained by unique non-shared environmental influences for life satisfaction independent of personality."

"Studies examining sources of individual differences in life satisfaction can be categorized in two main research directions. One implicates environmental factors, such as life circumstances and life events, and another emphasizes personality traits and genetic influences as important for life satisfaction.
On the one hand, life events (e.g., marriage, divorce, unemployment, birth of a child), life circumstances (e.g., cultural influences) and demographic factors (e.g., income, education) constitute external environmental factors.
On the other hand, several studies have shown that life satisfaction is consistently related to personality, suggesting the existence of a so-called "happy personality"
Although the specific correlations between personality traits and life satisfaction are moderate, the results of a meta-analysis by Steel, Schmidt, and Shultz (2008) showed that as much as 39% of the variance in quality of life measures can be explained by personality.

Like personality, life satisfaction showed substantial genetic influences (30–37%), both additive (14–17%) and non-additive (16–20%) in nature, supporting the idea of a genetically influenced baseline of satisfaction.
... we cannot conclude that satisfied parents were more likely to have satisfied children because of their shared genes if substantial non-additive genetic influences are involved.

In our multivariate behavior genetic analyses, we found that all genetic influences on life satisfaction were also genetic influences on personality.
.... we could not investigate spousal similarity in our sample to estimate the effect of assortative mating (i.e., the tendency to select a spouse with similar genotypes and/or phenotypes). Assortative mating could inflate estimates of shared environment because it increases genetic resemblance for DZ twins and siblings, and to lesser extents for mother–child and grandmother–child pairs but not for MZ twins."

 

Please read:
A Third of Recently Married Couples Met Online  
PAPER "Partnership longevity and personality congruence in couples"


Also:
Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform far better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users. They need to calculate personality similarity between users but there are different formulas to calculate similarity.
Recommender systems are morphing to ......... compatibility matching engines, as the same used in the Online Dating Industry since years, with low success rates, because they mostly use the Big5 to assess personality and the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate similarity.
(Personality traits are highly stable in persons over 25 years old to 45 years old)


What comes after the Social Networking wave?
The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test.
The market remains enormous!!

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

MindMatch, a new compatibility matching proposal.

More than 2 long years ago, last January 2011, I had posted about "Language Style Matching Predicts Relationship Initiation and Stability"

I had written:
An engine based on Language Style Matching will add a lot of ..... DISTORTION!
Profiling by music preferences to assess personality
video preferences to assess personality
color preferences to assess personality
bookmarks preferences to assess personality
handwriting analysis to assess personality
purchases and buying trends from credit cards to assess personality
and other methods like them
add distortion to the measurement.


I had also written about "how to extract user personality by using a keyboard (typing pattern) "

Now read the interview of MindMatch at OPW, a new compatibility matching proposal. Matching score seems to be a superposition of areas in an enneagram-type personality arrange. That is not going to revolutionize the Online Dating Industy!

--------------------

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!

The only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry is using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5 and expressing compatibility with eight decimals (needs a quantized pattern comparison method, part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation, to calculate similarity between prospective mates.)
High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.


Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.
 


--------------------
Additional info:

The Teller–Ulam design is the nuclear weapon design concept used in most of the world's multi-megaton-range thermonuclear weapons;  a 1,000 times more powerful than Hiroshima's Little Boy. In most applications the bulk of its destructive energy comes from uranium fission, not hydrogen/deuterium/tritium fusion
Its essential features, which officially remained secret for nearly three decades, are:
1) separation of stages into a triggering "primary" explosive and a much more powerful "secondary" explosive
2) compression of the secondary by X-rays coming from nuclear fission in the primary, a process called the "radiation implosion" of the secondary,
3) heating of the secondary, after cold compression, by a second fission explosion inside the secondary.

The Online Dating Industry needs a very powerful algorithm like the "Teller Ulam design". In this case 100 times more powerful than actual matching algorithms.

Can you guess which is that powerful matching algorithm?


Monday, August 26, 2013

Facebook and Google must obey Indian laws, says court!


The Delhi High Court Friday said that social networking site Facebook Inc. and search engine Google Inc. are bound by the rules of that country and cannot flout the law just because they are foreign companies.

The same should apply to online dating companies in every country where they operate!

Please read: NEW Legislation for Online Dating Sites ???

"Say Something, An App For Singles"

"Say Something Is An App For Singles To Get Better At Dating Small Talk. But First It Needs To Attract Women" article at TechCrunch.

Please read:
Mobile and Dating: Preference for Accessing Online Dating Sites
The vast majority of singles want to access online dating sites from the privacy of their homes with 72% preferring to access them from their home computers. However, 68% of singles are still likely to use their mobile devices either at home or away from home to access the sites.



The Online Dating Industry needs a Big Earthquake, not stupidities with more bells and whistles, not more of the same stuff already available. The Online Dating Industry needs innovation. But innovations will definitively come from new discoveries on Theories of Romantic Relationships Development.

Friday, August 23, 2013

NEW Legislation for Online Dating Sites ???

Imagine a NEW Legislation for Online Dating Sites to force them disclose how many active members they have (Premium members: paid or with gift subscriptions) ?
And also force them to conduct ID verification ?

That will improve dramatically the Online Dating Industry!

During 2008, a lawsuit against Parship in Belgium about "pratiques commerciales trompeuses" forced Parship to disclose how many paid members it had in Belgium (Parship lied about their customers; 80.000 announced, 5.004 in reality, a 6.25% conversion rate, the same to say over 93% inactive profiles!!! )
During January 2011, former CEO of Match LATAM Countries recognized 75% inactive profiles at Match Argentina.
New legislation can kill free/freemium sites.

Actually, the Online Dating Industry has no/weak Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms.
No one compatibility matching method is Scientifically Proven.
BUT
A variety of new laws, or new interpretations of existing laws, could subject dating sites to claims or otherwise harm their business. (extracted from IAC SEC filing)


Do you remember ... ?
Dannon's Activia, DanActive health claims draw USD21 Million fine.
Power Balance Bracelets lawsuit.
The PIP breast implants scandal.
The 2010 was the year of the "PIP scandal". Thousands of women throughout the world carrying a time bomb: prosthesis with uncertified gel, increased risk of rupture and leak into ganglions, increase risk of developing capsular contractures.
Also "Reebok Had to Pay USD25 Million in Customer Refunds To Settle FTC Charges of Deceptive Advertising of EasyTone and RunTone Shoes! "

A similar case is eHarmony,  a 13 years old site claiming to be "scientifically proven", and they have not got any proof of that!

The Online Dating Industry is selling elixirs, tonics, snake oil liniments and other patent medicine and performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created where any player can make any claim without any credentials. 

 
I live in a South American country and I am really astonished to see how online daters in "1st World" countries are really victims of human experimentation.
 

Thursday, August 22, 2013

eHarmony, 13 years old obsolete site now!

Originally designed for people with fair/white skin, Anglo-Saxon and Christian, tried to be the new Mayflower, like the founders of a glorious nation.

eHarmony is not "scientifically proven" because eHarmony Labs had never proven eHarmony's matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships -and very low divorce rates- than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one's own, or other technique as the control group in a peer reviewed Scientific Paper for the majority (over 90%) of eHarmony's members.
Moreover the entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%), in the same range as searching by your own.

eHarmony's members are like gamblers in a Big Online Casino, the ones who can win are less than 10% of them.
The majority of eHarmony's members are not going to succeed. They are going to fail in reaching a long term monogamous relationship with commitment. Wasting time and money!

I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem 10 years ago!

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Passwords13 conferences

Passwords13 Las Vegas was held July 30 & 31, 2013 at Gold Coast Casino.

Passwords13 Norway will be held in Bergen, Norway in December 2013.

Hope online dating sites can pay attention to those conferences!

Remember former conferences ?
The Passwords^12 Conference
The Passwords 11, A 2-day Conference

Security holes / gaffes / auto login features ?

Users may be exposing themselves without realizing it.

Remember:
Several online dating sites HAD BEEN ALERTED IN ADVANCE, since 2009 about security holes, but they had not paid the attention it deserved. 
 New legislation can kill free/freemium sites.

The Online Dating Industry has no/weak Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms.
No one compatibility matching method is Scientifically Proven.
BUT
A variety of new laws, or new interpretations of existing laws, could subject dating sites to claims or otherwise harm their business. (extracted from IAC SEC filing)


 Please read also:
Power Balance Bracelets lawsuit
Lawsuit against Match 

In January 2011 the former CEO for IAC Personals Latam Countries, Mr. Claudio Gandelman: Match Argentina recognized 75% inactive profiles.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Why Facebook Graph Search Will Finally Make Online Dating Cool ???

Article at Huffington Post, but
"online dating" is a broad concept to define a large group of different proposals.
Facebook Graph Search is useless for serious dating.

With Facebook Graph Search you can search for the person you want, but most probably that person does not exist or does not want to meet you because you are not compatible with him/her. Online dating needs innovations, but the innovations will come from Latest Research in Theories of Romantic Relationships Development with commitment: high precision personality similarity and not meet other persons with similar interests.

Please remember If man A likes playing cards and woman B also likes playing cards, that does not mean man A likes woman B, or woman B can like man A with the same intensity or interest.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

FULL slides from Tutorial: Recommender Systems

IJCAI-13, the 23rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence was held in Beijing, China from August 3-9, 2013.

FULL slides from Tutorial: Recommender Systems





--------
Please remember:
IPSATIVE personality tests are OBSOLETE (self-descriptive questionnaires) and should be discarded: MBTI (PerfectMatch), DISC (ThomasKnowsPeople), Enneagram (Dopasowani) or other proprietary ipsative tests like the ones used at Chemistry, ButterfliesAgain, Doskonalapara, PembePanjur, LittleHint, oneGoodLove and others.

NORMATIVE personality tests like Big5 versions used at PlentyOfFish, eHarmony, MeeticAffinity, Parship, Be2, True and others, are good for guidance (
orientation) purposes but not good enough for predictive purposes.
"Because the Big Five groups the more specific primary-level factors, feedback organized around the five Global Factor scales is more easily understood. For detailed feedback or predictive purposes, one should assess the more specific primary factors. Research has shown that more specific factors like the primary scales of the 16PF Questionnaire predict actual behavior better than the Big 5 Global Factors. For example, one extravert (a bold, fearless, high-energy type) may differ considerably from another (a sweet, warm, sensitive type), depending on the extraversion-related primary scale score patterns, so deeper analysis is typically warranted." Extracted from the 16PF5 Manual


The output of the 16PF5 test are 16 variables STens (Standard Tens) taking integer values from 1 to 10. STens divide the score scale into ten units.
STens have the advantage that they enable results to be thought of in terms of bands of scores, rather than absolute raw scores. These bands are narrow enough to distinguish statistically significant differences between candidates, but wide enough not to over emphasize minor differences between candidates.

Online Dating sites have very big databases, in the range of 20,000,000 (twenty million) profiles, so the Big 5 model is not enough for predictive purposes.
If they use the Big 5 model, the whole precision is less than you could achieve searching by your own!!!


The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%), in the same range as searching by your own.
Actual online dating sites offering compatibility matching methods are only fueled by big marketing budgets and not by serious scientific evidence. No one (eHarmony, Chemistry, PerfectMatch, PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor, MeeticAffinity, Be2, RewardingLove, Parship, True, etc) can prove its matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one's own, or other technique as the control group in a peer_reviewed Scientific Paper for the majority (over 90%) of their members.

They are all like placebo, as:
* Actual online dating sites offering compatibility matching methods, when calculating compatibility between prospective mates, have less or at least the same precision as searching on one's own. [in the range of 3 or 4 persons compatible per 1,000 persons screened]
* That is because they use:
a) simplified versions of personality traits, instead of the 16PF5 or similar with the complete inventory (16 variables)
b) inadequate quantitative methods to calculate compatibility between prospective mates.

To solve that problem I propose:
1) the 16PF5 or similar normative personality test to measure personality of normal persons over 26 years old interested in serious dating.
No actual online dating site offering compatibility matching methods uses the 16PF5 normative test available in different languages or similar test.
2) a new quantitative method to calculate compatibility between prospective mates, based on quantized pattern comparison (part of pattern recognition by correlation)
The value of my algorithm is to achieve far more precision than searching on one's own [in the range of 3 persons compatible per 100,000 persons screened, 100 times better than actual competitors]


WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!

The only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry is using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5 and expressing compatibility with eight decimals (needs a quantized pattern comparison method, part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation, to calculate similarity between prospective mates.)
High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.

  
Also:
Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform far better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users. They need to calculate personality similarity between users but there are different formulas to calculate similarity.
Recommender systems are morphing to ......... compatibility matching engines, as the same used in the Online Dating Industry since years, with low success rates, because they mostly use the Big5 to assess personality and the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate similarity.
(Personality traits are highly stable in persons over 25 years old to 45 years old)

---------------------------------
What comes after the Social Networking wave?
The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test.
The market remains enormous!!


Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Want to enter the South American Market?


First key, see world map like this! Because most probably your brain distorts!

 South America is not the end of the world, it is the beginning of everything: 90% of World population would die by 2050! (Olduvai theory) Best place to live will be South America by 2050.

South American population is over 387 million persons and singles over 18 years old are over 100 million persons. Imagine all South American singles including Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay, Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia for the Online Dating Market.
South America has a GDP (nominal, 2011) of over USD 4,176,712,000 (USD 4,17 Trillion)
And ............. online dating sites make coins as revenue because South America is an unserved / unexploited market. 

South Americans do mostly not use any bank services.
I think over 80% of population do not have any debit or credit cards, they always pay in cash.
The few ones who have credit cards, do mostly not use them for subscriptions to avoid automatic rebilling, and they are very afraid of phishing and identity theft.
The few ones who have debit cards, do mostly not use them for Internet transactions because they are afraid of phishing and identity theft.

More than 70% of people who own a cell phone in all Latin America, are pre-paid clients. They do not receive bills, they charge credit in their cell phones by 2 methods: Acquiring pre-paid cards at kiosks/drugstores or via virtual charge at kiosks/drugstores/supermarkets or at any place with a PosNet terminal (Banelco or Link)  
The mobile concept evolving, meaning tablets with Wi-Fi Network access

Other local payment methods include:
paying by Western Union (in almost every local post office)
paying by Pago Fácil.


The Simpsons, Apple, Facebook, LinkedIn, WordPress, Google, Hotmail, Yahoo, YouTube, Blogger, Wikipedia, Bing, Twitter, Skype are BIG successes in Argentina!!!
I have the theory that if something is successful in Argentina, it could be a success in the World.
If it can NOT be a success here in Argentina, it will definitely NOT be a success in the World.

NO online dating company (for serious daters) has big success here in Argentina nor Brazil or other South American country.
-----------------------------------
What comes after the Social Networking wave?
The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test.


EXCELLENT research! Mobile's Impact on Dating and Relationships





Mobile's Impact on Dating and Relationships
and surprise! that study confirms what I had been saying since years!
mobile concept evolving, meaning tablets with Wi-Fi Network access
Remember I was featured 3 years ago at Mobile Social Web 2.0 Forecasts, Challenges & Regulations 2010-2014 from Juniper Research.
Mobile's Impact on Dating and Relationships was conducted by Amplitude Research (USA).
The survey was completed online May 8‐13, 2013, by 1,500 respondents ages 21 to 50.
Respondents demographics were as follows:
– 50% Male and 50% Female
– Balanced among USA regions
– Between the ages of 21 and 50 and evenly distributed across the following four age
ranges: 21‐26, 27‐34, 35‐42, 43‐50
– Smartphone owners and users

Mobile and Dating: Preference for Accessing Online Dating Sites
The vast majority of singles want to access online dating sites from the privacy of their homes with 72% preferring to access them from their home computers. However, 68% of singles are still likely to use their mobile devices either at home or away from home to access the sites.


Please read also:
Internet Trends report 2013 from KPCB
mobile applications adoption rate
Mobile Operators' Business Models
"The Mobile Digital Omnivore" from ComScore UK
Full Webinar and some slides LATAM Digital Future 2013
2013 Latin America Digital Future in Focus Report by comScore

Sunday, August 11, 2013

My answer to Legal Letter from Affinitas GmbH.



On August 7, 2013, I had received a Legal Letter from Affinitas GmbH. via local lawyers in Argentina.
Also, that August 7, 2013 in the afternoon, I received and read an email from the COO of Affinitas GmbH. from Germany (Mr. Michael Schrezenmaier) who said that there was indeed a bug in the software of Affinitas GmbH.'s online dating sites, so there was no overlap of the profiles suggested adjectives and I had been induced to suspect an anomalous situation since 12 July 2013, to think those such compatible suggested profiles were false.

Please read in his email saying:
"The truth is that you pointed us to a bug. We have setup our platform in a way that allows for a very fast internationalisation. The backbone is a long list of “keys” which need to be translated. Certain keys need to be mapped to each other in order to show the same information for sender and receiver of a certain item. In the case at hand we mapped the keys in a wrong way with the result that User A saw for example "affectionate" whereas User B (receiver) saw this term translated as "Romantic" (purely an example). "

I had immediately begun to delete/remove all posts about Affinitas GmbH., in my blog "Breaking the Online Dating Sound Barrier". The blog HowtoBreakOnlineDatingSoundBarrier was entirely deleted, and also I had deleted/erased my comments from Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and Google Plus.



Affinitas GmbH.'s Management Team spent 25 days without giving any official explanation of the anomalies detailed in screenshots on suggested profiles sent to them at different times via email, that confused me and led me to think they were behaving badly. If they had answered almost immediately with a valid explanation, easily believable (in this case a bug in the algorithm affecting the mapping of adjectives) about that anomaly mismatch in the adjectives at several sites like eDarling Chile and Mexico and EliteSingles Ireland and UK; I would had never written so many posts and comments about that suspicious situation.
First email from me was sent on Friday, July 12, 2013 at night from Argentina (it was Saturday July 13, 2013 in Germany) so from July 12, 2013 to August 7, 2013 there are 25 days, taking into account the time difference of 5 hours. (Summer time in Germany). Never before has anyone from Affinitas GmbH. bothered to answer any of my many emails sent on different days. If I had been told almost immediately (purely for example) "Hey Fernando, we have a bug in the algorithm that does not match the correct adjectives in the descriptions of the profiles. We are trying to fix it. Thanks for discovering that anomaly and informing us so soon" I would had never written so much about that anomaly. In addition, each time I sent an email to Affinitas GmbH., I also copied to several experts from the Online Dating Industry and those people were also surprised that Affinitas GmbH.'s Management Team did not officialy answer to screenshots sent in those emails.

350 people work at Affinitas GmbH., but Fernando Ardenghi's eyes were the ones who discovered that problem of mismatches in adjectives.
 In the era of Internet heyday it is surprising a German company took 25 long days to respond to a serious anomaly.

What happened to eVow ???

Just seen a drop from Alexa. What could happened to eVow ???
then only 2 days later, see how Alexa shows immediately variations in traffic rank


Saturday, August 10, 2013

Is there a bug at POF "online counter"?


from Brazilian site     online (413616) [Worldwide]
from Spanish site     online (413616) [Worldwide]
from German site     online (313230) [Worldwide]
from French site     online (313230) [Worldwide]

something is wrong!

(screenshots captured at the same moment)




Problem seems to be corrected now.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Revenue by Geography / IAC Q2 2013



Interesting to read this SEC filing from IAC showing its Revenue by Geography.


At page 10 of pdf document you can read.
NOTE 3—BUSINESS COMBINATIONS
Acquisition of Twoo
On January 4, 2013 , Meetic S.A., a Match subsidiary, purchased all the outstanding shares of Massive Media NV, which operates Twoo, a social discovery website that allows its users to meet new people. The purchase price was USD25.0 million in cash, plus potential additional consideration of up to €83.2 million (or USD109.0 million using the June 30, 2013 exchange rate) that is contingent upon a combination of earnings performance and user growth through December 31, 2015. The fair value of the contingent consideration arrangement at the acquisition date was USD40.8 million .
Please read the article "A Year Of Spam: The Twoo Experience" at TechCrunch

See also:
Again "Good" Q2 2013 for IAC Personals, will wait and see Q3,   The unexploited Latin American Market remains enormous!
 Match Japan, NEW redesign (I seriously doubt the IAC is earning money in Japan.)

 ---------------------------

The Simpsons, Apple, Facebook, LinkedIn, WordPress, Google, Hotmail, Yahoo, YouTube, Blogger, Wikipedia, Bing, Twitter, Skype are BIG successes in Argentina!!!
I have the theory that if something is successful in Argentina, it could be a success in the World.
If it can NOT be a success here in Argentina, it will definitely NOT be a success in the World.

NO online dating company (for serious daters) has success here in Argentina nor Brazil or other Latin American country.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Received Legal Letter from Affinitas GmbH.


I had just received Legal Letter from Affinitas GmbH (by email).
I had removed all posts of them.
I can not afford a lawyer / solicitor.
In a final word I can say several Journalists are investigating.

Regards,

Fernando.

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

PAPER: Neuroticism and Extraversion in youth ....

"Neuroticism and Extraversion in youth predict mental wellbeing and life satisfaction 40 years later"

Neuroticism and Extraversion are linked with current wellbeing, but it is unclear whether these traits in youth predict wellbeing decades later. We applied structural equation modeling to data from 4583 people from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. We examined the effects of Neuroticism and Extraversion at ages 16 and 26 years on mental wellbeing and life satisfaction at age 60–64 and explored the mediating roles of psychological and physical health. Extraversion had direct, positive effects on both measures of wellbeing. The impact of Neuroticism on both wellbeing and life satisfaction was largely indirect through susceptibility to psychological distress and physical health problems. Personality dispositions in youth have enduring influence on wellbeing assessed about 40 years later.

------------
What will come after the Social Networking wave?
The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test.
The market remains enormous!! 

Monday, August 5, 2013

genetic matchmaking? 23andMe launches first TV ad campaign

Just read the article at Vator "23andMe launches first TV ad campaign"

Unfortunately the information provided from 23andMe (DNA Analysis) is so vague, so imprecise that is only suitable for entertainment/educational purposes than to take it seriously (to change your lifestyle).

The reports are like

Heart Attack:
- You:
2.4 out of 100 men of European ethnicity who share your genotype will get Heart Attack between the ages of 40 and 49.
3.8 out of 100 men of European ethnicity who share your genotype will get Heart Attack between the ages of 50 and 59.
5.3 out of 100 men of European ethnicity who share your genotype will get Heart Attack between the ages of 60 and 69.
11.0 out of 100 men of European ethnicity who share your genotype will get Heart Attack between the ages of 70 and 79.
20.9 out of 100 men of European ethnicity who share your genotype will get Heart Attack between the ages of 40 and 79.


- Average:
2.4 out of 100 men of European ethnicity will get Heart Attack between the ages of 40 and 49.
3.9 out of 100 men of European ethnicity will get Heart Attack between the ages of 50 and 59.
5.4 out of 100 men of European ethnicity will get Heart Attack between the ages of 60 and 69.
11.1 out of 100 men of European ethnicity will get Heart Attack between the ages of 70 and 79.
21.2 out of 100 men of European ethnicity will get Heart Attack between the ages of 40 and 79.

Remember a complete genetics analysis of one person is the range of over USD100,000
!
-------------
Please remember, the 3 milestone discoveries of the 2001 – 2010 decade for Theories of Romantic Relationships Development are:
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users.

I.1) "Human oestrus" Gangestad & Thornhill (2008)
"Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"

I.2) "Does the contraceptive pill alter mate choice in humans?" Alvergne & Lummaa (2009)
".. whereas normally cycling women express a preference for MHC (Major Histocompatibility Complex) dissimilarity in mates, pill users prefer odours of MHC-SIMILAR men, indicating that pill use might eliminate adaptive preferences for genetic dissimilarity."

I.3) "Personality and reproductive success in a high-fertility human population" Alvergne, Jokelac & Lummaaa (2010)
The reproductive success of both men and women is influenced by our personality traits, according to the paper.
The study, found that women with higher levels of neuroticism and more extravert men, are likely to give birth to a larger number of children in societies with traditionally high birth rates.

II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. [uncovered by Eastwick & Finkel (2008); Kurzban & Weeden (2007); Todd, Penke, Fasolo, & Lenton (2007)]
(Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences are useless)


III) The strict personality similarity axis.

Latest Research in Theories of Romantic Relationships Development shows: compatibility is all about a high level on personality* similarity* between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
*personality measured with a normative test.
*similarity: there are different ways to calculate similarity, it depends on how mathematically is defined.

Also Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits
of their users and they need to calculate personality similarity between them.

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!


Please remember personality = temperament + character
Personality is composed of two basic types of traits:
traits that an individual acquires, dimensions of character;
and
traits with biological underpinnings, dimensions of temperament (Cloninger 1987).

New social discovery application: 1Mind


1Mind approach seems to be quite similar to 12Like (launched last June 2010) or LikeIt (aka TheCompleteMe, 2012) and many more sites like them (Zin.gl, Are We Good Together?, Opposites Connect, SoulMateIcon, Tastebuds, Auralist, Comiingle, LikeBright, Perceptual Networks, HowAboutWe, even Zoosk) offering social discovering features.
Please remember If man A likes playing cards and woman B also likes playing cards, that does not mean man A likes woman B, or woman B can like man A with the same intensity or interest.
Also "You can have one Myers-Briggs personality on Tuesday and another when you retake the test on Thursday" Barbara Ehrenreich (2006)

Personality is composed of two basic types of traits:
traits that an individual acquires, dimensions of character;
and
traits with biological underpinnings, dimensions of temperament (Cloninger 1987).

IPSATIVE personality tests are OBSOLETE (self-descriptive questionnaires) and should be discarded: MBTI, DISC, Enneagram or other proprietary ipsative tests like the ones used at Chemistry and others.
NORMATIVE personality tests like Big5 versions used at PlentyOfFish, eHarmony / Meetic Affinity, Parship, Be2, True are good for guidance purposes but not good enough for predictive purposes.
Worldwide, no one dating site uses the 16PF5 normative personality test or similar.


The Online Dating Industry needs innovations but they will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment: STRICT PERSONALITY SIMILARITY and not "meet other people with similar interests"
The 3 milestone discoveries of the 2001 - 2010 decade for Theories of Romantic Relationships Development are:
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. "Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences are useless)
III) What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy. Compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
 But personality measured with a normative test, not ipsative ones.

Conclusion: 1Mind is not going to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry. Just another "social discovery" application.


---------------------------

What will come after the Social Networking wave?
The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test.
 

Thursday, August 1, 2013

New causual dating application: Twine

Another Badoo clone, in this case Twine.

I do not think "real" women would like to use that kind of applications. (Remember some men like to pose as women in casual dating applications)
Casual daters do mostly not want to pay. The IAC uses Tinder as a marketing tool to migrate free users to Match and make them pay there.