Monday, June 28, 2010

5 million Argentineans use online dating sites

5 million Argentineans use online dating sites

and the market is unexploited!

See traffic for Match Argentina
Where Visitors Go on

Subdomain Percent of Site Traffic 71.1% 5.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3%

and for ZonaCitas

Those proposals are low quality offers.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Innovations: to take the 16PF5 test 3 times

In previous posts I had written that Innovations the Online Dating Industry needs will come from latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment (personality similarity between prospective mates).

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 to assess personality of its members.
Without acquiring the license to offer the 16PF5 for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

In compatibility matching methods there are 2 steps:
1) to objectively measure personality traits or other human variables.
2) to calculate compatibility between prospective mates.

LIFEPROJECT METHOD is not intended for newbies in the Online Dating arena.
It is intended for past and actual dissatisfied customers of eHarmony , Match/Chemistry, PerfectMatch, Be2, Parship and others.
It is intended for persons who had been hurted in their feelings by members of those sites
It is intended for over 26 years old normal persons.

The 16PF5 test is not more complex than the one used by eHarmony , Match/Chemistry, PerfectMatch, Be2, Parship and others.

more info
(the IPAT Institute for Personality and Ability Testing, Inc. is the owner)
The 16PF Questionnaire is a quantifiable, well-documented 185 items instrument for measuring the 16 normal personality dimensions.

Time: computer administration, less than 30 minutes. [perhaps faster than eHarmony's and Chemistry's]
Reliability: Internal consistency averages .76. Test/retest reliabilities average .80 for two-week interval, and .70 for two-month interval. [far better than any others, which are less than .60]
Validity: Validity studies presented in the 16PF Fifth Edition Technical Manual provide considerable evidence of the construct validity of the primary and global scales.

The following languages are available for the 16PF Questionnaire
Chinese (traditional)
English (United Kingdom)
English (United States)
Portuguese (Brazilian)
Portuguese (European)
Spanish (European)
Tagalog (Philippines)
(Normative tests can not simply be translated, because you need the norm for that test, and that norm is actualized each and every time Census Figures are released)

I think women will love a rational explanation of why they need to take the test 3 times, with these 2 fresh papers

1) "Human oestrus" Gangestad & Thornhill (2008)
explains that "Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"

2) "Does the contraceptive pill alter mate choice in humans?" Alvergne & Lummaa (2009)
If you carefully read that milestone paper you will discover that although men do not take contraceptive pills, they detect women who do not take and women who take those pills or other hormonal contraceptive methods. "revisiting the lap-dancing study, normally cycling lap dancers made nearly USD20 more per hour in their fertile phase as compared to their luteal phase, whereas pill users did not show any mid-cycle peak in tip earnings"

"Effects of ovulatory-cycle phase on lapdancer tip earnings per shift in normally cycling women versus women using hormonal contraception (pill users). Over a 60-day period, 18 heterosexual women working as lap-dancers reported day-by-day start or stop of menstruation and their tip earnings from any shift they worked. Normally cycling participants earned nearly USD335 per 5-hr shift during oestrus, USD260 per shift during the luteal phase, and USD185 during menstruation. By contrast, pill users showed no rise in earnings during oestrus, suggesting that the use of pill interrupts cycling attractiveness of women to men. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals." Figure 1 in paper

A Marketing campaign should be incisive in this new discovery:
contraceptive hormonal methods alter mate choice in humans because only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle.
For each persons "internal compatibility" will be calculated between #1_try and #2_try, and between #2_try and #3_try. If "internal compatibility" between #2_try and #3_try is equal or slightly higher than "internal compatibility" between #1_try and #2_try, then #3_try is the one pattern to be added to the database.

I think lots of persons could be interested in meeting/contacting other persons sharing nearly the same personality because they will be *predictable* for them.
a note about IRT and the 16PF5:
IRT models have been applied to the 16PF and several papers and conference presentations have described those efforts.
Bedwell. (2007). Matching method to inquiry: Measurement equivalence and the 16PF questionnaire. In Bedwell and Moyle (Chairs). Santa Clause, the Tooth Fairy and Perfect Measurement Equivalence. Symposium at the annual meeting of the Society of Industrial and Organizational Psychology, April, New York, NY.

Irwing & Bedwell. (2006). Tests of factorial invariance and DIF for the American and Japanese versions of the 16PF in two large standardization samples. Paper presented at the International Test Commission 5th International Conference on Psychological and Educational Test Adaptation across Languages and Cultures, July, Brussels, Belgium.

Stark, Chernyshenko, & Drasgow. (2004). Examining the effects of differential item (functioning and differential) test functioning on selection decisions: When are statistically significant effects practically important? Journal of Applied Psychology, 89, 497-508.

Chernyshenko, Stark, Chan, Drasgow, & Williams. (2001). Fitting Item Response Theory to two personality inventories: Issues and insights. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 36, 523-562.

Ellis & Mead. (2000). Assessment of the measurement equivalence of a Spanish translation of the 16PF Questionnaire. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 60, 787-807.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Personality and reproductive success

The reproductive success of both men and women is influenced by our personality traits, according to the paper
"Personality and reproductive success in a high-fertility human population"

Alexandra Alvergne, Markus Jokelac, and Virpi Lummaaa

The study, found that women with higher levels of neuroticism and more extravert men, are likely to give birth to a larger number of children in societies with traditionally high birth rates.

Dr Virpi Lummaa said: "Our results show that personality predicts family size differently in men and women, and those men with largest families have personality aspects different from the women with the largest families. Gaining understanding of such individual-level determinants of reproductive decisions helps in the current debate on the role of individual versus social factors in explaining recent fertility changes around the world."

extracted from this link

Monday, June 14, 2010

PlentyOfFish Marriage Predictor 5th decimal

14 June 2010 PlentyOfFish Marriage Predictor Predicted Match Score with shellbe8 is 0.34885

No matter the adjustment the brains behind that predictor made, it reaches the 5th decimal.
It is a HOAX, because that predictor is based on a flawed proprietary Big5 model personality test.
It will need to reach the 8th decimal, a 1,000 improvement.
It will be impossible to succed without acquiring the license of the 16PF5, or using a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5, to construct a copycat version of the 16PF5 (one per language and norm)

10 June 2010 PlentyOfFish Marriage Predictor Predicted Match Score with shellbe8 was 0.33967

20 May 2010 PlentyOfFish Marriage Predictor No indication of Predicted Match Score

I would love to see Compatibility Matching Distribution Curves with each and every prospective mate like the ones for LIFEPROJECT METHOD
I use "personality similarity distribution" for LIFEPROJECT METHOD because it offers strict personality similarity using the 16PF5 and the quantitative method I had invented but other proposals should use "Compatibility Distribution"

Y axis: number of persons per interval (women in this case)
X axis: 100 intervals, from 1 to 100, meaning (n-1).00000000% to (n-1).99999999% of personality similarity with man#1 in interval n.

Eg: In the personality similarity distribution of man#1 compared to ~100,000 women database
There are 1,320 women with 46.00000000% to 46.99999999% of personality similarity with man#1 in interval 47.
There are 3,370 women with 72.00000000% to 72.99999999% of personality similarity with man#1 in interval 73.
There are 500 women with 84.00000000% to 84.99999999% of personality similarity with man#1 in interval 85.

This is the last review because PlentyOfFish Marriage Predictor is confirmed as another HOAX in the Online Dating Industry.

Friday, June 11, 2010

PlentyOfFish Marriage Predictor

I had checked the new changes at the PlentyOfFish Marriage Predictor and I suspect there is no PhD, no predictive modeling specialist, no mathematical genius at all behind that predictor. It is only home grown!!!

"This list of users is generated from a statistical model based on thousands of successful couples who have taken our chemistry test. Our statistical model picks matches that we're especially confident in. We believe the following are users that you will most likely date and maybe marry! Predicted Match Score is directly output from our model. The higher the score the more likely you are to date that user, the average user has 1000 potential matches in the system, making the 40 listed here your top 4% of matches. The scale is not out of 100 so don't freak out if your best match has a Predicted Ideal Match Score of .01" ???

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

12like, visualDNA and a HOAX

12like claims to be scientifically proven, but it is a HOAX

"The bases is the scientifically proven and psychologically sound 12like Image Personality Test. In this fun, accurate, and easy test, questions are answered exclusively with images. Test results are then summarized in a personality type and high quality individual Matches are proposed."


"Basis ist der wissenschaftlich und psychologisch fundierte 12like-Bilder-Persönlichkeitstest. Dabei werden Fragen ausschließlich mit Bildern beantwortet. Der Test macht Spaß, ist besonders einfach in der Durchführung und bringt treffsichere Ergebnisse. Das Testergebnis wird in einem Persönlichkeitstyp zusammengefasst und entsprechend passende hochwertige, individuelle Partnervorschläge unterbreitet."

"scientifically proven" should mean the online dating site offering a compatibility matching method can prove its matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one's own, or other technique as the control group in a peer_reviewed Scientific Paper.

The test used at 12like is powered by visualDNA

VisualDNA: At the overviews of how VisualDNA integrates with Portals and Ad Networks,
page 6 says "Personality Type: Attitudes, Big 5 Categorisation (Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, Openness)"

Who independently validated and independently certified how that profiling technology correlates with the Big5? I want to see a paper showing VisualDNA correlates with the Big5 (like the one for the Dewey Color System showing its correlation with the 16PF and the distortion it adds.)

How does VisualDNA compare one pattern with others?
Using solely a linear or logistic multivariate regression equation?

Profiling by music preferences to assess personality
video preferences to assess personality
color preferences to assess personality
bookmarks preferences to assess personality
handwriting analysis to assess personality
purchases and buying trends from credit cards to assess personality
and other methods like them
add distortion to the measurement.

I had invented 2 fake (dummy) profiles to test 12like.

I had accidentally discovered that something is wrong with 12like's compatibility matching algorithm, there is a glitch when it first shows your compatible matches.

See for example, the list of compatible men for the "German" female profile (Bibi) sorted by "Match %"

The screen shows CPUX4FUM is 100% compatible (Er, 36 Jahre, 175 cm, IT professional, Potsdam, Deutschland).

I opened that profile and says
CPUX4FUM is 87% compatible (Er, 36 Jahre, 175 cm, IT professional, Potsdam, Deutschland)

then I had pressed the back button and appeared other compatible persons with high percentage than 87%.

There are 10 personality types and 12like matchs you using some kind of "personality" "similarity".
Some screenshots

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Some sites losing traffic

During Q2 2010 traffic still continued to decline in major paid Online Dating Sites and many Social Networking sites. It is due to the Online Dating Fatigue Phenomenon.

Daters had understood that the entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino.
Daters got tired of being scammed with "automatic renewal" of their subscriptions and other "credit-card billing trickery".

Free sites like PlentyOfFish and OkCupid are steady, it seems not growing any more.

Match, Chemistry, True, eHarmony, PerfectMatch, Be2, Parship, Meetic and other paid sites need to wake up and innovate. Or die and leave room for new opportunities.

Severely losing traffic (Sites I think they will die soon)







Slowly losing traffic



and for Social Networking sites, there is only room for 1 or 2, like Facebook and Ning; all others should die.

Severely losing traffic (Sites I think they will die soon)
SONICO (the Argentinean social networking site)





Slowly losing traffic