Tuesday, February 1, 2011

THE Lesson from latest PlentyOfFish incident.

Latest PlentyOfFish incident was only the beginning of a new era of challenges for the Online Dating Industry.

As you should know there are plenty of Online Dating Executives wasting precious time, speaking stupidities at iDate conferences but not discussing the big Agenda for the Online Dating Industry.

1) Matchmaking Industry.
The Online Dating Industry should had killed the Matchmaking Industry and other Offline Dating Proposals since some years ago, but they are still alive, rosy and with good health.
The Matchmaking Industry is a USD 1,000 million in USA and Canada and another USD 1,000 million in Europe.

2) WorldWide paying members.
There are over 100 million singles in USA and Canada and over 100 million singles in Europe.
WorldWide there are more than 5,000 online dating sites but they have less than 5 million persons as paid members. The Online Dating Market remains enormous!

3) Traffic of paid dating sites declined sharply during 2010 and continues. They are full of inactive profiles (some fake ones)

* The 2009 and 2010 showed big sites like Match, Chemistry, True, eHarmony, PerfectMatch, Be2, Parship, Meetic and others have WorldWide less traffic than 2 years ago or decaying in traffic.
It was not due to economic downturn or the traction of social networking sites.
It was a new phenomenon. Daters had understood that the entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with low successful rates.

* Free/freemium online dating sites like PlentyOfFish and OKCupid are only marketing tools useful to send prospective customers to paid online dating sites like Chemistry and eHarmony.
When free users got tired of free sites, they migrate to a paid one.

4) The biggest scammers are not from Ghana or Nigeria.
Match, eHarmony, Chemistry, PerfectMatch, True, Meetic, Be2, Parship and others, what all they did since 1995 until now, were scamming paying members with marketing and credit card billing trickery.
The Online Dating Industry needs a major earthquake or a major cataclysm to extinguish those large dinosaurs.
The 2010 was the year of Online Dating Fatigue phenomenon, you saw daters leaving in droves from old paid sites like Match, Chemistry, True, eHarmony, PerfectMatch, Be2, Parship, Meetic, etc.
Main prediction for the Online Dating Industry 2011: The Online Dating Fatigue Phenomenon will get even worse during 2011.
PlentyOfFish had reached operating ceiling, now decaying. eVow can not take off
MySpace is going to be the biggest dating application for fun, in ... Facebook!!!

The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries has:
* No Legislation.
* No Quality Norms.
* Low reliable background checks.

The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%).

Lack Of Innovation & Decadence can summarize the Online Dating Industry 2010.

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 (five thousand) online dating sites; "dating" is a broad word to define a large group of different proposals.
Online Dating Sites can be classified as:
1.0: "Browsing/Searching Options, Powerful Searching Engines"
1.5: "Unidirectional Recommendation Engines"
2.0: "Matching based on Self-Reported Data / Bidirectional Recommendation Engines"
3.0: "Compatibility Matching Algorithms"

There is a range convergence phenomenon between the 3 mains tools online dating sites offer now: Searching by your own, Recommendation Engines and Compatibility Matching Methods based on proprietary models or the Big5. Any member receives on average 3 to 4 prospective mates as selected / recommended / compatible for dating purposes per 1,000 members screened in the database.

They all 3 are performing the same for serious daters, with a high percentage of false positives, like gun machines firing flowers.

- No actual online dating site offering a compatibility matching method [eHarmony, eSyncrony, True, MeeticAffinity, Chemistry, PerfectMatch, Be2, Parship, MyType, RewardingLove, PlentyOfFishMarriagePredictor and others] has a credible peer reviewed Scientifc Paper by Academics (public scrutiny of findings) from different Universities showing its matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships with low divorce rates than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one's own, or other technique as the control group.
They are all like placebo, because they have less or at least the same precision as searching on one's own OR less or at least the same precision as recommendation engines [in the range of 3 or 4 persons compatible per 1,000 persons screened]
The success rate* of Chemistry is less than 6%**.
The success rate* of eHarmony is less than 10%**.
*success rate == percentage of persons who leave the site because they found someone compatible.
**estimated by Fernando Ardenghi using reverse engineering.

The majority, over 90% of their members are not going to achieve a long term relationship with commitment (or marriage) using those sites.

The Online Dating Industry is performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created.
The Online Dating Industry is selling elixirs, tonics, snake oil liniments and other patent medicine.

5) Innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites.
No more Imitation. No more Improvement.
The Online Dating Industry needs Innovations, but the innovations the Online Dating Industry needs will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment.

Only 3 major discoveries can help to revolutionize the online dating industry.
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. "Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"

II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (FORGET Behavioural recommender systems)

III) Compatibility is all about a high level on personality(1) similarity(2) between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
In compatibility matching methods there are 2 steps:
(1) to objectively measure personality traits or other human variables.
* WorldWide, there are over 5,000 online dating sites but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar test like 15FQ+) to assess personality of its members.
Without offering the 16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors, the complete inventory as established by Dr. Raymond Cattell during 1949) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.
The ensemble (whole set of different valid possibilities) of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 6.7 * 10E9
(2) to calculate compatibility between prospective mates.
* I had invented a new quantitative method to calculate compatibility between prospective mates, based on quantized pattern comparison (part of pattern recognition by correlation) named LIFEPROJECT METHOD.

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