Monday, February 14, 2011

about divorce statistics at eHarmony

Preliminary findings about divorce statistics at eHarmony.

Based on 2 flawed "brochures"

The one from Chadwick Martin Bailey  (Match)
The one from Harris (eHarmony)
2009 eHarmony Marriage Metrics Study: 148,311 marriages and 1,130,006 non-married, monogamous relationships (ESTIMATED TO BE) started by eHarmony, between January 1, 2008 and June 30, 2009.
The majority of persons who leave eHarmony are not going to marry, they are going to be in a non-married monogamous relationship.
They should investigate divorce rates in married and non-married but in long term monogamous relationships couples.

It is intriguing why they publish that "divorce statistics" in their blog instead of publishing papers like:
"Assortative mating, convergence, and satisfaction in married couples"
"Similarity predicts relationship satisfaction in Brazil"
eHarmony / eHarmonyLabs does not promote own papers
Surely because eHarmony's Management Team knows eHarmony's personality similarity approach is correct, but how eHarmony assesses personality and how eHarmony calculates similarity is incorrect

If eHarmony were a medicine, it will be performing as placebo.
The success rate* of eHarmony is less than 10%**.
*success rate == percentage of persons who leave the site because they found someone compatible.
**estimated by Fernando Ardenghi using reverse engineering.

The majority, over 90% of eHarmony's members are not going to achieve a long term relationship with commitment (or marriage) using that site.

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