Thursday, May 31, 2012

Internet Trends 2012 by KPCB /// Mobile accounts





Internet Trends 2012 by KPCB /// Mobile accounts


Mobile adoption still in early stages (Slide 3) Please remember: The mobile concept had been evolving since last 5 years. 5 years ago "mobile" was smartphones, Treos and Blackberrys. Now "mobile" is tablets.

iPad Growth (3x iPhone) Leaves "Siblings" in Dust (Slide 9) but tablets are used mostly with WiFi connections!

iPads are exploding. Just under a third, or 29% of US adults own a tablet or e-reader, up from 2% three years ago. (Slide 12)

Mobile Internet traffic exploding. Mobile accounts for 10% of Internet traffic in 2011, up from 1% in 2008. (Slide 14)

Bad News – Rapidly Growing Mobile Internet Usage Surpassed More Highly Monetized Desktop Internet Usage in May, 2012, in India. (Slide 18)

Bad News - eCPMs 5x Lower on Mobile than Desktop (Slide 19)

Bad News - ARPU (Average Revenue per User) 1.7 to 5x Lower on Mobile than Desktop
Zynga has an ARPU (average revenue per user) of USD 25.00 on the desktop, 5 times more than its mobile ARPU of USD 5.00. (Slide 20)

Bad News - Google is seeing its clicks rise because of mobile. But it's CPC (cost per click) is dropping because a click on a mobile device is worth less than the desktop. (Slide 21)

Bad News - Facebook is also seeing revenue constrained as it adds more mobile users. Facebook had 488 million active mobile users in Q1 2012, up 69% from the year-ago period. That's translated into annualized ARPU of USD 4.00, up 1% from a year ago, but down from USD 4.59 in Q4 2011. Total advertising revenue growth is slowing down.  (Slide 22)

Bad News - Global GDP Growth Expected to Decelerate in 2012 with Europe Slipping Into Recession. (Slide 93)
Bad News -  SA, Inc. – Biggest Peace Time Gap Between Revenue & Expenses in USA History. (Slide 96)


Bad News - BUBBLE - OR NOT? RECENT INTERNET IPOS – WHILE COMPELLING IN MARKET VALUE, NOT COMPELLING IN PERFORMANCE (Facebook, Pandora, Yelp, Zynga, Groupon, etc)
(Slide 104)

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Have you read also The Internet's impact on aspiring countries report from McKinsey ?

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What comes after Social Networking?
My bet: The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test. 

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