Thursday, April 2, 2015

IACI 29March2015 report, about Match Group spin-off

New report

Little birdie told me about Match Group spin-off:

    This is old news. I'd bit a little shocked if this happened anytime soon (although I could be wrong...they may be desperate to make it happen. If they did try and push it through it would be rather bearish in my opinion, as to me it would suggest Match is about to fall off a cliff and they want to cash in while they can)

    Three problems from my vantage point. 

    One: they have a ton of "unallocated corporate expense" that makes all their segments look more profitable than they really are. If you split the companies up, you probably actually have to add MORE expense (reverse synergies), and you'd have to allocate that corporate expense somewhere. Now, this happens in any split (although I would argue it's way more severe for IACI), so maybe this piece isn't a dealbreaker.
    Second, though, is what you have leftover of core IACI when you do this. It's basically a bunch of junky businesses that are either money losing or declining and secularly challenged. IACI is able to hide some of this via Match profitability.
    Third, by their own admission, Match is in "a transition year." It would be weird to me if they tried to pull off this split during a self admitted transition year.

    It took my breath away a little bit with how much they are charging for Tinder. I'm not sure what to make of it. They must think they have a certain small % cohort who will pay almost anything to swipe. I continue to think Tinder is by far the least efficient way to find a date online.


My bet: IAC will put Tinder to sleep soon or later.
Facebook allows minors to use it (people from 13 to 17 years old)
Online Dating is NOT for minors.
The IAC is not going to conduct Identity Verification to screen all Tinder's members.
It seems Tinder is like Chatroulette but it will collapse like Skout.
When the IAC Personals bought OKCupid (4+ years ago) for an astronomical amount of money, the OKCupid team had the task to copycat Badoo, but they failed in that mission. IAC Personals backed Tinder instead, as the copycat of Badoo. Tinder is only a cheap marketing tool to send prospective clients to Match and make them paid there, but it seems there is a divorce between Tinder and Match just now!
(Tinder cannibalizing Match)
Perhaps the IAC will "discretely bury" Tinder soon, it will absorb it and merge with Match mobile (with Stream and Mixer features) as soon as possible.  
and Badoo backed Bumble as revenge! 
Please see:
Lunch with the FT: Barry Diller and news from Tinder scandal
article about "Match turns 20 years old"
Match Group - IAC Q4 2014 and FY 2014 results.
IAC-InterActiveCorp (IACI) Q4 2014 - Earnings Call Transcript
"I read through the conference call. Lots of excuses and hand waving...they've already thrown in the towel on 2015 and are now trying to say 2016 will be the great year.
Tinder monetization testing is "solid" which is code for "much worse than we expected."

The optical illusion of Tinder

What I "learned" at iDate 2015 Superconference

Match, PlentyOfFish (POF) and eHarmony in DEATH SPIRAL?
about article "Match May Not Light IAC's Fire"

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