Tuesday, February 19, 2013

The Online dating disruption panel at iDate Las Vegas.

Interesting to read full transcription.

"Dan Winchester: I would argue that there hasn't been any meaningful disruption in the last 13 years. The closest I'd say anyone has come to disruption is the free space. POF claims to have more users than any other dating site. And Match.com paid USD90 million for a company with USD3 million worth of revenue (he is naming OkCupid). I do think there is still the possibility that free dating could usurp paid dating and the industry just gets smaller financially."
I agree but the revenue of POF is in the range of USD40 million meanwhile IAC Personals is in the range of USD750 million. POF has the traffic but IAC Personals has the money. And new Legislation can kill free online dating proposals like POF if Legislation forces to conduct ID verification or background checks.

"Brian Bowman: ...... the biggest reason dating hasn't innovated is the business model and this 1990 model of charging to communicate obfuscates all kinds of innovation. "
I agree because paid online dating sites have high acquisition costs, they can not abandon the attracting, converting and retaining marketing stages; the automatic renewal of their members subscriptions with dirty credit-card billing trickery.

"Brian Bowman: ...... So the major innovation in dating is going to be infusing social networking, social profiles, who you know in common, who your friends are on top of the dating process. "
I DO NOT agree at all! Social dating / social discovering is vaporware.

"Larry Cervantes: I think instead of being disruptive, a lot of what we call innovation is simply adoption and implementation ... "
I agree. Pure imitation, no innovation at all.  Innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites.

"Steve Carter: Facebook doesn't really know that much about us, you know who knows a lot about us? It’s Google. Does anyone know why Google hasn’t entered this space?"
Facebook does not know your …………… personality!
Google also does not know your …………… personality!

I do not think Google (annual revenue over USD31Billion) could be interested in the Online Dating Industry (because people could accuse Google of big monopoly and that could hurt its big revenue), but I think Google could need a Personality Based Recommender System.


C level executives are cooking barbecues under the water (selling smoke) and not paying attention to latest research from Academics which could be beneficial for the Online Dating Industry. Wasting precious time with Matchmakers which should be obsolete. 

Actual matching algorithms used by eHarmony, Chemistry, PlentyOfFish and others, even behavioural recommender systems, can not be improved, they need to be discarded NOW. Because they are in the range of 3 to 4 prospective mates as selected / recommended / compatible for dating purposes per 1,000 members screened in the database. They all 3 are performing the same for serious daters, with a high percentage of false positives, like gun machines firing flowers.
They can not break the online dating sound barrier!
You do not need to improve a piston engine when you need a jet engine to break sound barrier.

That range convergence phenomenon is what I had called "the online dating sound barrier", in 2003, when I had discovered than problem, 10 long years ago.

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!

I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.

Breaking "the online dating sound barrier" is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to INNOVATE and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.

Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.

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