Tuesday, February 3, 2015

The optical illusion of Tinder

More investors hypnotized by Tinder. (article IAC/InterActiveCorp’s Tinder Catches Fire)
"We have taken a more conservative view with respect to the current size of Tinder’s user base and now believe that, currently, the app has 22 million-24 million users. While we are more conservative on the current scale, we believe that Tinder can reach a user base of 50 million by the end of 2016. We remain highly confident that revenues associated with Tinder’s premium could easily exceed USD150 million in 2016 with an additional USD90 million opportunity in annual advertising revenue. Our view of Tinder Plus revenue assumes a total user base of 50 million, of which 5% takes a premium service at USD5 a month."

My bet: Nobody will pay.

How much money will you need to destroy Tinder forever launching an improved copycat of it? Like Facebook destroyed MySpace during 2009.
Less than USD100 million, but that is done, it is Bumble (backed by Badoo).


Have you seen the annual revenue of Match, Chemistry, OkCupid, Meetic, and other IAC's (nasdaq: IACI) online dating sites excluding Tinder? In the range of USD 800 Million with profits. The prospective revenue of Tinder is no more than USD 100 million because it will not outperform Badoo. As a social discovery site, Tinder, could make no profit at all, like Zoosk! (pending: ZSK)

   "online dating" is a broad concept to define a large group of different proposals.
Social dating is vaporware.
The Online Dating Industry does not need any improvement. It does need INNOVATIONS!
The key to long-lasting romance is STRICT PERSONALITY SIMILARITY and not "meet other people with similar interests".

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