Wednesday, May 8, 2013

PAPER: ""The Impact of Internet Diffusion on Marriage Rates ..."

"The Impact of Internet Diffusion on Marriage Rates: Evidence from the Broadband Market" says "This work complements related research by Hitsch et al. (2010), which relies on data from an online dating service to infer revealed mate preferences. One key finding is that the match outcomes in the online dating market appear to be approximately efficient in the sense that they are the outcomes that would arise in an environment with no search frictions." at page 7 and "Hence, it is important to emphasize that, even though dating through organized matchmaking websites seems to be an easy and to efficient way of meeting people (Hitsch et al. (2010)), individuals appear to be using online resources in a much broader way when looking for a partner." at page 32.

Hitsch, Gunter J., Ali Hortaçsu, and Dan Ariely (2010): "Matching and Sorting in Online Dating," American Economic Review, Vol. 100(1), pp. 130-163. 
is a flawed paper.

The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%), in the same range as searching by your own.
Innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites.
The Online Dating Industry is waiting for the innovative compatibility matching method which can kill the Matchmaking Industry and other Offline Dating Proposals. The innovations the
Online Dating Industry needs, will definitively come from the new discoveries on Theories of Romantic Relationships Development.

I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. "Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences are useless)
III) What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy. Compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.

Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform far better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!

The only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry is using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5 and expressing compatibility with eight decimals (needs a quantized pattern comparison method, part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation, to calculate similarity between prospective mates.)
High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.
Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.


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