Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Facebook / “graph search” feature / fun dating

Before reading this post please read

Facebook lost 1.4M active users in U.S.A.
The social network may be reaching a saturation point.
( I STRONGLY agree )

With graph search, Facebook joins the dating game
The site’s new search engine is tailor made for matchmaking

 (I add not matchmaking, it is only for fun dating)
Most probably Dr.  Andrew T. Fiore, Data Scientist at Facebook is one of the masterminds behind graph search. Check some of his publications to understand why he is not going to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry for serious daters, graph search can kill fun dating proposals like Badoo, HowAboutWe, Zoosk, LikeIt (rebranded from TheCompleteMe), even OkCupid and PlentyOfFish (POF).
(especially the Thesis ROMANTIC REGRESSIONS An Analysis of Behavior in Online Dating Systems September 2004)

Online Dating sites/applications can offer 2 main proposals:
* fun dating (casual dating), for flirting, for entertainment purposes, for instant gratification; mostly for persons up to 25 years old.
* serious dating, for long term mating with commitment, for marriage with low divorce rates; mostly for persons over 26 years old.

Online Dating had evolved: from "Browsing/Searching Options"to "Recommendation Engines" and now Online Dating is evolving from "Recommendation Engines"to "Compatibility Matching Algorithms" because You can fastly search for the person you want, but most probably that person does not exist or does not want to meet you because you are not compatible with him/her.

Experience had shown serious daters never use social networking sites/applications for dating purposes and Online daters belong to 3, 4, 5 or 6 online dating sites at the same time.

 Social networking/applications could merge with online dating for fun, for flirting, for entertainment purposes, for instant gratification.
Social networking and online dating for serious daters are like water and oil, they will never mix.
Social dating is vaporware. Online Dating for serious daters does not need to be more social, it needs to be more effective/efficient. It needs to reduce the false positives problem.
Innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites.
The Online Dating Industry needs innovations but they will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment.
Compatibility is all about a high level on personality* similarity* between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
*personality measured with a normative test.
*similarity: there are different ways to calculate similarity, it depends on how mathematically is defined.
STRICT PERSONALITY SIMILARITY and not "meet other people with similar interests"

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!

High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.

Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.

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