Sunday, January 13, 2013
From iDate2004 to iDate2013 / FINAL CONCLUSIONS
10 iDate Superconferences
FINAL CONCLUSIONS FROM 10 useless SUPERCONFERENCES:
1) Matchmaking Industry.
The Online Dating Industry should had killed the Matchmaking Industry and other Offline Dating Proposals since some years ago, but they are still alive, rosy and with good health. The Matchmaking Industry is a USD 1,000 million in USA and Canada and another USD 1,000 million in Europe. WorldWide, the Matchmaking Industry is over USD 2,000 million industry.
The Online Dating Industry needs to kill the Matchmaking Industry, like computers killed typewriters. There is no room for both.
2) WorldWide paying members.
Worldwide there are less than 7 million paid members (adding up all the ones at eHarmony, Match, Chemistry, Meetic, MeeticAffinity, OkCupid, PeopleMedia's Communities, PlentyOfFish, Parship/eCift, etc). The market remains enormous for new players.
3) Traffic from the majority of paid dating sites declined sharply since 2009 and continues (True, PerfectMatch, Chemistry, eHarmony, Parship, MeeticAffinity, Be2). Free/ freemium Online Dating Sites like OKCupid and PlentyOfFish increased their traffic but reached operating ceiling. If paid sites are offering the same as free sites, where is the need to pay? Mobile migration is a big challenge for free/ freemium Online Dating Sites like OKCupid and PlentyOfFish because they can not monetize as much as from desktops.
4) The biggest scammers are not from Ghana or Nigeria.
Some dating sites, what all they did since 1995 until now, were scamming paying members with marketing and credit card billing trickery. The Online Dating Industry needs a major earthquake or a major cataclysm to extinguish those large dinosaurs.
5) C-Level executives are more worried about their golf scores than their company's long term strategy and innovations. They attend iDate conferences to discuss stupidities, like if Annie is pregnant or not, but not talking about Innovations, Legislation, ID verification, background checks, Quality Norms for the Online Dating Industry (the Big Agenda).
6) No innovations since years for the Online Dating Industry.
The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%), in the same range as searching by your own.
Innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites.
The Online Dating Industry is waiting for the innovative compatibility matching method which can kill the Matchmaking Industry and other Offline Dating Proposals.
The Online Dating Industry needs innovations. But innovations will definitively come from new discoveries on Theories of Romantic Relationships Development.
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users.
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences are useless)
III) The STRICT personality similarity axis: compatibility is all about a high level on personality* similarity* between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
*personality measured with a normative test.
*similarity: there are different ways to calculate similarity, it depends on how mathematically is defined.
Also Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users and they need to calculate personality similarity between them.
WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!
I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.
Breaking "the online dating sound barrier" is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!
The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.22.214.171.124 is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 126.96.36.199.188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.
That is the only way to INNOVATE and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.
High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.
Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.