Tuesday, January 22, 2013

"online dating" is a broad concept.

Seth Fiegerman at Mashable had published the article "How Facebook Graph Search Could Disrupt Online Dating" but ..."online dating" is a broad concept to define a large group of different proposals.

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 (five thousand) online dating sites they can be classified as:
1.0: "Browsing/Searching Options, Powerful Searching Engines" " "You can fastly search for the person you want, but most probably that person does not exist or does not want to meet you because you are not compatible with him/her."
1.5: "Unidirectional Recommendation Engines"
2.0: "Matching based on Self-Reported Data / Bidirectional Recommendation Engines"
3.0: "Compatibility Matching Algorithms"
Compatibility is all about a high level on personality* similarity* between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
*personality measured with a normative test.
*similarity: there are different ways to calculate similarity, it depends on how mathematically is defined.
STRICT PERSONALITY SIMILARITY and not "meet other people with similar interests"


There is a range convergence phenomenon between the 3 mains tools online dating sites offer now: Searching by your own, Recommendation Engines and Compatibility Matching Methods based on proprietary models or the Big5. Any member receives on average 3 to 4 prospective mates as selected / recommended / compatible for dating purposes per 1,000 members screened in the database.

They all 3 are performing the same for serious daters, with a high percentage of false positives, like gun machines firing flowers.

Most probably Dr.  Andrew T. Fiore, Data Scientist at Facebook is one of the masterminds behind graph search. Check some of his publications to understand why he is not going to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry for serious daters, graph search can kill fun dating proposals like Badoo, HowAboutWe, Zoosk, LikeIt (rebranded from TheCompleteMe), even OkCupid and PlentyOfFish (POF).
(especially the Thesis ROMANTIC REGRESSIONS An Analysis of Behavior in Online Dating Systems September 2004)

Experience had shown serious daters never use social networking sites/applications for dating purposes and Online daters belong to 3, 4, 5 or 6 online dating sites at the same time.

Social networking/applications could merge with online dating for fun, for flirting, for entertainment purposes, for instant gratification.
Social networking and online dating for serious daters are like water and oil, they will never mix.
Social dating is vaporware. Online Dating for serious daters does not need to be more social, it needs to be more effective/efficient. It needs to reduce the false positives problem.
Innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites.
The Online Dating Industry needs innovations but they will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment.


- No actual online dating site offering a compatibility matching method [OkCupid, eHarmony, eSyncrony, True, MeeticAffinity, Chemistry, PerfectMatch, Be2, Parship, MyType, RewardingLove, PlentyOfFishMarriagePredictor and others] has a credible peer reviewed Scientifc Paper by Academics (public scrutiny of findings) from different Universities showing its matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships with low divorce rates than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one's own, or other technique as the control group.
They are all like placebo, because they have less or at least the same precision as searching on one's own OR less or at least the same precision as recommendation engines [in the range of 3 or 4 persons compatible per 1,000 persons screened]
Moreover
The success rate* of Chemistry is less than 6%**.
The success rate* of eHarmony is less than 10%**.
*success rate == percentage of persons who leave the site because they found someone compatible.
**estimated by Fernando Ardenghi using reverse engineering.

The majority, over 90% of their members are not going to achieve a long term relationship with commitment (or marriage) using those sites.

The Online Dating Industry is performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created.
The Online Dating Industry is selling elixirs, tonics, snake oil liniments and other patent medicine.

The Online Dating Industry needs Innovations, but the innovations the Online Dating Industry needs will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment The 3 milestone discoveries of the 2001 – 2010 decade for Theories of Romantic Relationships Development are:
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users.
"Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"

II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life.  [uncovered by Eastwick & Finkel (2008); Kurzban & Weeden (2007); Todd, Penke, Fasolo, & Lenton (2007)]
(Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences are useless)

III) The strict personality similarity axis.
Latest Research in Theories of Romantic Relationships Development shows: compatibility is all about a high level on personality* similarity* between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
*personality measured with a normative test.
*similarity: there are different ways to calculate similarity, it depends on how mathematically is defined.

Also Personality Based Recommender Systems are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits
of their users and they need to calculate personality similarity between them.

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!

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